Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Round 2 West
Sharks/Wings
The last time the Sharks faced the Wings in the playoffs, in 2007, they were up in game 4 and about to take a 3-1 series lead. They didn't and they lost the series. So, as for many teams, beating the Wings is the test of whether or not a team will have playoff success. Indeed, more so that ever this year. I think the odds are good that the Sharks will get to the finals if they can win here. Big "if." But it's their series to win or lose. The Wings aren't good enough to beat them if they don't psyche themselves out. Sharks in 7.
Hawks/Canucks
Interesting rematch. Van beat a good LA team, but the Hawks didn't exactly live up to expectations against the Preds. The Hawks are the kind of team that will get stopped butt cold by a hot goalie. Luongo made some key saves but in he second round, especially late, but you cant have an off night like Luongo is prone to. Hawks in 7.
The last time the Sharks faced the Wings in the playoffs, in 2007, they were up in game 4 and about to take a 3-1 series lead. They didn't and they lost the series. So, as for many teams, beating the Wings is the test of whether or not a team will have playoff success. Indeed, more so that ever this year. I think the odds are good that the Sharks will get to the finals if they can win here. Big "if." But it's their series to win or lose. The Wings aren't good enough to beat them if they don't psyche themselves out. Sharks in 7.
Hawks/Canucks
Interesting rematch. Van beat a good LA team, but the Hawks didn't exactly live up to expectations against the Preds. The Hawks are the kind of team that will get stopped butt cold by a hot goalie. Luongo made some key saves but in he second round, especially late, but you cant have an off night like Luongo is prone to. Hawks in 7.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Devils
I didn't watch enough games this year to make a qualified thorough post-mortem, but I'll say this much:
The pundits are almost always wrong about the Devils and what they need to do, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Marty needs to quit playing so many regular season games. Period.
And I'll just add that the d-corps is nothing compared to the teams that won cups. Back in 2000, GM Lamoriello said that he traded to get Claude Lemieux back because the Devils had too many of the same kind of player. That is true again now.
The Devils are probably as deep in forward scoring now as they've ever been, except maybe 2000-01, but as thin on D as they have been since 1991. Lou says he is trying to sign Ilya Kovalchuk. Fine, but how about getting a defenseman of that caliber?
The pundits are almost always wrong about the Devils and what they need to do, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Marty needs to quit playing so many regular season games. Period.
And I'll just add that the d-corps is nothing compared to the teams that won cups. Back in 2000, GM Lamoriello said that he traded to get Claude Lemieux back because the Devils had too many of the same kind of player. That is true again now.
The Devils are probably as deep in forward scoring now as they've ever been, except maybe 2000-01, but as thin on D as they have been since 1991. Lou says he is trying to sign Ilya Kovalchuk. Fine, but how about getting a defenseman of that caliber?
Monday, April 19, 2010
Q.E.D.
All you need to see to be convinced that the "new rules" or "post-lockout rules" in hockey are complete, utter bullshit is the first 20 seconds on this clip. This is clearly "interference" by Recchi—Kennedy isn't within 5 feet of the puck and hasn't touched it yet—but it's guts and it's an awesome play. Assuming you're not a Sabres fan, would you rather plays like this are made, or called dead by a ref's whistle? If you answer is the latter, you must reject the new rules, reject the spin of calling the decade prior to the lockout the "dead puck era" and rename it the "guts counted" era.
Hell, the Associated Press seemed to think it was the lead story of the game.
P.S. You could also call it "when everything other than finessy scoring counted." Goaltending counted more. Everything mattered. But, hey, why care about hardcore fans when you can sell Ovechkin and Crosby pinups to fair-weather fans in Kentucky.
Hell, the Associated Press seemed to think it was the lead story of the game.
P.S. You could also call it "when everything other than finessy scoring counted." Goaltending counted more. Everything mattered. But, hey, why care about hardcore fans when you can sell Ovechkin and Crosby pinups to fair-weather fans in Kentucky.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Shark Weak Continues on NHL
Sharks apologists can continue to make excuses. The goal was a fluke. Heatley was out. Fine—all of that is true. But it's the kind of things that teams on a trajectory for a Cup overcome, especially against first round opponents that are significantly weaker. Or appeared that way on paper.
In the end, the fact that the Sharks couldn't score one goal on 51 shots speaks just as loudly as the Colorado goaltender's 51 saves.
They sure seem to have a way of running into a hot goaltender, don't they? Maybe someone will start to ask: when will the Sharks get the hot goalie? Not until they make a change.
In the end, the fact that the Sharks couldn't score one goal on 51 shots speaks just as loudly as the Colorado goaltender's 51 saves.
They sure seem to have a way of running into a hot goaltender, don't they? Maybe someone will start to ask: when will the Sharks get the hot goalie? Not until they make a change.
Moving Goalposts
Every year, games 1 and 2 completely change the goalposts. Before the playoffs started we expected to see total domination by the Sharks and Capitals. After game 1, and well into game 2 in each series, we wondered if the #8 seed was going to run away with it. Then, the #1 team wins game 2 and it seems to change everything.
Let's just remember that even a win in 6 was lower than our original expectations for both of these teams. The usual source of playoff underachievement in the face of such predictions is goaltending. It has been not good enough for both teams. Both could win their series in 5 games yet, though I doubt that will happen. If they do, they will have to contend with teams in the next round where this lack of goaltending, unless it gets better, could be a critical difference.
Let's just say I'm from Missouri City, Missouri and I need to be shown more than once. Winning "an upset" in game 2 is not going to convince me that either of these teams will make it into the finals.
Let's just remember that even a win in 6 was lower than our original expectations for both of these teams. The usual source of playoff underachievement in the face of such predictions is goaltending. It has been not good enough for both teams. Both could win their series in 5 games yet, though I doubt that will happen. If they do, they will have to contend with teams in the next round where this lack of goaltending, unless it gets better, could be a critical difference.
Let's just say I'm from Missouri City, Missouri and I need to be shown more than once. Winning "an upset" in game 2 is not going to convince me that either of these teams will make it into the finals.
Game 3
Time for depth to make its appearance in this series for the Devils. They will need to get at least two goals from either their PP, PK, Defenseman of third/fourth line players. Indeed, they need three goals from these sources to win Game Two. Assuming they are essentially third line players, I would like to see Rolston and/or Clarkson score a goal.
The other adjustment the Devils need to make is on the PK. White is the only player that they have who is big enough to contend with Pronger in the crease. White will have to keep an eye on Pronger and battle him in front of the net when he moves in from the point. Both front of the net goals that Pronger scored were against pusillanimous smaller defending players.
Really, the Flyers were lucky to win Game 1 and Game 2 would have probably been 4-2 absent the criminal 1997-style officiating. If Boucher were truly as good as he was in his rookie run he would have established himself somewhere in the past ten years. Enough quality chances against him and he will fold.
Let's Go Devils!
The other adjustment the Devils need to make is on the PK. White is the only player that they have who is big enough to contend with Pronger in the crease. White will have to keep an eye on Pronger and battle him in front of the net when he moves in from the point. Both front of the net goals that Pronger scored were against pusillanimous smaller defending players.
Really, the Flyers were lucky to win Game 1 and Game 2 would have probably been 4-2 absent the criminal 1997-style officiating. If Boucher were truly as good as he was in his rookie run he would have established himself somewhere in the past ten years. Enough quality chances against him and he will fold.
Let's Go Devils!
Labels: Clarkson, Depth, Devils, Flyers, Game Three, nhl, Officiating, playoffs, Rolston
Friday, April 16, 2010
Fins to the Limp, Fins to the Right
Win or lose tonight, it's clear that Nabokov is soft in the playoffs. Nobody could have predicted.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Shark Weak 2010
Oy.
It has to be a terrible, terrible day to be a Sharks fan. I can't imagine the anxiety. Arguably, they have been the best and most consistent team in California since Gretzky left. But that argument breaks down around this time of year. The 00s were the decade of the Ducks in California hockey. It began with a miraculous run to game 7 of the finals in 2003 which prefaced a conference finals run in 2006, California's first Stanley Cup in 2007, a playoff appearance in 2008, and bookended by a dramatic upset of the President's Trophy winners in the first round in 2009. That President's Trophy winner, was, of course, the Sharks.
Now they are on the verge of being eclipsed by their other southern neighbor, the Kings. If not this year, then next year it seems all but certain.
The hockey press/media, who is doing everything possible to ruin the sport, have embodied the two poles of ridiculousness on this issue. Hours before the puck dropped yesterday, San Jose columnist Ross McKeon declared that a decade of underachieving in the playoffs by the Sharks is totally irrelevant to this year. Maybe he was writing a propaganda piece. Maybe he was just really optimistic. But how could he not see what was coming?
The minute the Sharks gave up the first goal, everyone other hockey journamalist began writing their "choke" storyline. And once they lost game 1 at home, they submitted them for print. Indeed, what McKeon was really blind to wasn't the statistics, nor was it the Xs and Os of executing a hockey game. Rather, it was the self-fulfilling prophecy, the snowballing effect that a loss, any loss in any game in this series would have, and the psychological consequences of it.
The San Jose Mercury News spent roughly half of their article on the game relating it to past failures. Their other article? Speculating, once again, on whether Patrick Marleau will be the fall guy for the loss. I don't think you can argue with a straight face that none of this has any effect at all. It's certainly not the whole story. As I write this, I still believe San Jose will win this series. But it will have an effect.
It has to be a terrible, terrible day to be a Sharks fan. I can't imagine the anxiety. Arguably, they have been the best and most consistent team in California since Gretzky left. But that argument breaks down around this time of year. The 00s were the decade of the Ducks in California hockey. It began with a miraculous run to game 7 of the finals in 2003 which prefaced a conference finals run in 2006, California's first Stanley Cup in 2007, a playoff appearance in 2008, and bookended by a dramatic upset of the President's Trophy winners in the first round in 2009. That President's Trophy winner, was, of course, the Sharks.
Now they are on the verge of being eclipsed by their other southern neighbor, the Kings. If not this year, then next year it seems all but certain.
The hockey press/media, who is doing everything possible to ruin the sport, have embodied the two poles of ridiculousness on this issue. Hours before the puck dropped yesterday, San Jose columnist Ross McKeon declared that a decade of underachieving in the playoffs by the Sharks is totally irrelevant to this year. Maybe he was writing a propaganda piece. Maybe he was just really optimistic. But how could he not see what was coming?
The minute the Sharks gave up the first goal, everyone other hockey journamalist began writing their "choke" storyline. And once they lost game 1 at home, they submitted them for print. Indeed, what McKeon was really blind to wasn't the statistics, nor was it the Xs and Os of executing a hockey game. Rather, it was the self-fulfilling prophecy, the snowballing effect that a loss, any loss in any game in this series would have, and the psychological consequences of it.
The San Jose Mercury News spent roughly half of their article on the game relating it to past failures. Their other article? Speculating, once again, on whether Patrick Marleau will be the fall guy for the loss. I don't think you can argue with a straight face that none of this has any effect at all. It's certainly not the whole story. As I write this, I still believe San Jose will win this series. But it will have an effect.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
One more thing...
I'm having trouble finding anyone except the usual Colorado chauvinists who think the Sharks won't win this series. There were more than a few people that thought they were stepping into it last year with the Ducks. At the end of the day that means that a loss in this series will be an even bigger choke.
It could be very interesting if Colorado can pull off a game 1 win. Still, I don't think this is where the Sharks will have problems.
So, anyway, drop the puck.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Now me.
I'll take the Caps in 4, the Devils in 6, Sabers in 7, and Pens in 4.
Out west, I'll say San Jose in 5, Chicago in 6, Van in 5, and Detroit in 6.
---
UPDATE: Some of my thoughts...
I'll just add that the Sharks' history of choking is hardly limited to the first round. They have lost series where they were the heavy favorite in each round over the last 10 years, except the finals, where they have never been. In my opinion, they were the strongest in 2007 when they were minutes away from going up on the Red Wings 3-1 in the 2nd round. They also lost in the 2nd round in 2008, 2006, 2002, and 2000. They lost in the 3rd round in 2004 and did not make the playoffs in 2003. I don't believe they will lose to Colorado, but after that they could be toast at any time.
Vancouver also has no excuses for their playoff performances over the last decade. They have had good enough teams to at least make a finals appearance.
The common denominator in both of these cases is an insistance by the team management to blame everyone except the goaltender even though in both cases that is the only common denominator throughout their ongoing string of failures. Apparently, the Dallas Stars have realized that in their case and are sending playoff choker Marty Turco away. Anyway, there are many goaltenders who are excellent in the regular season. If there is a team that is in the business of collecting President's Trophies, I suggest they pay guys like Turco, Nabokov, and Luongo. But for the teams that want the Stanley Cup, you need guys who can win in April.
Team Canada was a hair's breadth away from an embarrassing spectacle at the Olympics because they chose to put the goalie who played on the Canadian team in ahead of two goalies who both have won something. That dumb luck will not help the Canucks in the Stanley Cup playoffs, but it might get them past the young Kings.
Bryzgalov and Halak are two goalies that are capable of winning in April, and Bryzgalov already has a fairly decent playoff resume, including one of the longest ever shutout streaks.
The one other factor that even enters into my deliberations about who will win playoff series, though, is experience. There is both good and bad experience. The difference between the two, combined with goaltending, is why the Ducks beat the Sharks last year, and, why I believe Detroit will beat the Yotes nothwithstanding Bryzgalov's excellence. As for Van versus LA, I am unsure about this pick, but my gut simply tells me that the carriage has to turn back into a pumpkin at some point and Van is due for a win. Just gut, I guess.
Speaking of all of this, it's tough to think that the east won't come down to the same two teams it did last year, though New Jersey should be in the mix. They haven't been living up to my expectations for them since the lockout. This is the best team they've had since then, and it's probably Marty's best shot to get one more.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
First Round Predictions -- East
Washington Capitals versus Montreal Canadiens (Washington in 5): The Habs simply do not have the goaltending or the defense to contain Washington. I expect a lot of goal scpring; Gomez and Gionta are cagey enough to get theirs, but this will ultimately be as lopsided as a Pacquio fight.
NJ Devils versus Philadelphia Flyers (Devils in 6): Bad matchup for the Devils on papers (Flyers dominated the season series 5-1), but the Devils quietly played their best hockey towards the end of the season, and one feels that they are capable of taking it up a notch more in the post-season as they have really just been playing for positioning for about a month. Peter Laviolette gave the Devils fits when he coached the Hurricans, and the Flyers play a similar style as the Stanley Cup Canes. I am willing to bet that Jacques Lemaire is smart enough to narrow the "style of play" differneces over the course of three days of study. Boucher will be strong enough in goal, but if the Devils are able to control the tempo versus the Flyers they do have better finishers and the better goaltender. Pronger is the X-Factor in the Series though. We'll see if he still has it.
Buffalo Sabres versus Boston Bruins (Sabres in 6): This one is almost a toss up as the Bruins dominated the season series even though the Sabres finished far higher in the standings. Both teams play a very similar limit the chances and try to win a low scoring game style. I expect all of the games to be close. Ultimately, Buffalo has the money goaltender and the Bruins have a better defense but an untested goalie. When it comes down to someone scoring one goal, I would be most willing to count on Vanek, but I honestly would not be shocked if Boston wins.
Pittsburgh Penguins versus Ottawa Senators (Pens in 5): The Pens really lucked out in this first round match up as they are a team that has first round upset written all over them. The Sens' whole season has really consisted of one outlier long winning streak. Otherwise they are a shell of the perrenial contenders from the late 90s and first several years of the 2000s. They took a severe blow when they lost Alexi Kovalev. As mercurial as he is, he has always been a playoff stalwart. If the Pens show up they should win the Series, although Ottawa will play hard. It is still a true possibility that the Pens will not show up.
NJ Devils versus Philadelphia Flyers (Devils in 6): Bad matchup for the Devils on papers (Flyers dominated the season series 5-1), but the Devils quietly played their best hockey towards the end of the season, and one feels that they are capable of taking it up a notch more in the post-season as they have really just been playing for positioning for about a month. Peter Laviolette gave the Devils fits when he coached the Hurricans, and the Flyers play a similar style as the Stanley Cup Canes. I am willing to bet that Jacques Lemaire is smart enough to narrow the "style of play" differneces over the course of three days of study. Boucher will be strong enough in goal, but if the Devils are able to control the tempo versus the Flyers they do have better finishers and the better goaltender. Pronger is the X-Factor in the Series though. We'll see if he still has it.
Buffalo Sabres versus Boston Bruins (Sabres in 6): This one is almost a toss up as the Bruins dominated the season series even though the Sabres finished far higher in the standings. Both teams play a very similar limit the chances and try to win a low scoring game style. I expect all of the games to be close. Ultimately, Buffalo has the money goaltender and the Bruins have a better defense but an untested goalie. When it comes down to someone scoring one goal, I would be most willing to count on Vanek, but I honestly would not be shocked if Boston wins.
Pittsburgh Penguins versus Ottawa Senators (Pens in 5): The Pens really lucked out in this first round match up as they are a team that has first round upset written all over them. The Sens' whole season has really consisted of one outlier long winning streak. Otherwise they are a shell of the perrenial contenders from the late 90s and first several years of the 2000s. They took a severe blow when they lost Alexi Kovalev. As mercurial as he is, he has always been a playoff stalwart. If the Pens show up they should win the Series, although Ottawa will play hard. It is still a true possibility that the Pens will not show up.
Labels: Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Devils, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, nhl, Ottawa Senators., Phildelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, playoffs, Stanely Cup, Washington Capitals
First Round Predictions -- West
San Jose versus Colorado: (San Jose in 5). The Sharks finally luck out in the first round. The Avs stalled over the last two weeks in the season and seem unlikely to carry their regular season brio into the post-season. They have already defied expectations, and Adam Foote isn't enough of a veteran presence to get them caring enough to make a real run for the Sharks' money.
Blackhawks versus Predators: (Chicago in 6): This will be a relatively easy 6 game series as the Hawks simply have too much firepower for the Predlies. I suspect that the Hawks will lose two games rather than the Preds winning two.
Canucks versus LA Kings (Kings in 7): Upset special. Roberto Luongo is probably the most over-rated player in hockey. He has never won anything and was nervous as a house cat in the Olympics (Canada won in spite of Luongo, his inability to catch a routine wrist shot lead to Parise's tying goal in regulation). Kings have exceptional players in goal and in key defensive areas and are deep up front with Ryan Smyth providing grit and leadership.
Coyotes versus Red Wings (Coyotes in 6): One of my sports memes is that the team that lost in the championship round the previous season almost never does as well the next season (Yes the Pens won after finishing second last year, but onyl after firing their coach and vastly changing their roster at the deadline. It's also nice to change horses in midstream and yet still keep Malkin and Crosby, too). Of course, even finishing second is a tall order and requires many things to go right. A lot of people like Bar Food in this series because they have so much experience and finished strong, but the Yotes have the goaltending and the leadership to win a frustrating unfair type series the way Edmonton did several years back. The Wings have gotten tons of breaks over the last several years and this team is not as good as recent vintages. Ilya Bryzgalov is as underrated as Luongo is overrated. Phoenix does not have any pressure, and never lulled this season. The higher seed will pull off the "upset".
Blackhawks versus Predators: (Chicago in 6): This will be a relatively easy 6 game series as the Hawks simply have too much firepower for the Predlies. I suspect that the Hawks will lose two games rather than the Preds winning two.
Canucks versus LA Kings (Kings in 7): Upset special. Roberto Luongo is probably the most over-rated player in hockey. He has never won anything and was nervous as a house cat in the Olympics (Canada won in spite of Luongo, his inability to catch a routine wrist shot lead to Parise's tying goal in regulation). Kings have exceptional players in goal and in key defensive areas and are deep up front with Ryan Smyth providing grit and leadership.
Coyotes versus Red Wings (Coyotes in 6): One of my sports memes is that the team that lost in the championship round the previous season almost never does as well the next season (Yes the Pens won after finishing second last year, but onyl after firing their coach and vastly changing their roster at the deadline. It's also nice to change horses in midstream and yet still keep Malkin and Crosby, too). Of course, even finishing second is a tall order and requires many things to go right. A lot of people like Bar Food in this series because they have so much experience and finished strong, but the Yotes have the goaltending and the leadership to win a frustrating unfair type series the way Edmonton did several years back. The Wings have gotten tons of breaks over the last several years and this team is not as good as recent vintages. Ilya Bryzgalov is as underrated as Luongo is overrated. Phoenix does not have any pressure, and never lulled this season. The higher seed will pull off the "upset".
Labels: Chicago Blackhawks, Colorado Avalanche, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings, Nashville Predators, nhl, Phoenix Coyotes, playoffs, San Jose Sharks, Stanley Cup, Vancouver Canucks, Western Conference
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