Friday, November 5, 2010
2011
The NHL has more or less completed the transition into the look and feel of a salary-capped league. That is, not only are there not dynasties in the sense of multiple, repeat championships, there is also rapid turnover in who the elite teams are, or even who the playoff teams are.
This means anyone can win each year. Chicago had a good "warm up" playoff run in 2009, but it might have been tough to pick them to win it all even still.
Player mobility is up even more. The importance of veteran defenseman is greatly reduced. This may not be by design, because the market for defensemen was greatly inflated. But the elimination of goaltending as a dynasty- or even consistency-making element of a team, worthy of being a franchise player, is also complete. And it is by design. Brodeur will probably be the last of his kind for a while.
This is all to say that I think that the value of a prediction under these circumstances is even sillier than it used to be. Sure, someone will name the proper team. But the meaningful information that that guess could have been made on is so greatly reduced as to suggest it was dumb luck, and nothing else.
Still, there are some things you can see after 10 games or so about a team. Some just aren't cohesive or mentally able to win. Those teams probably won't be Cup contenders.
So, on the basis of even less meaningful information than before, I present my predictions for 2011.
Stanley Cup: Los Angeles Kings
Eastern Conference Champion: Washington Capitals
Final Four: LAK, WAS, STL, MTL
Playoff Teams: LAK, DET, VAN, STL, DAL, CHI, ANA, COLO; PHI, WAS, MTL, PIT, NYR, BOS, OTT, TOR
This means anyone can win each year. Chicago had a good "warm up" playoff run in 2009, but it might have been tough to pick them to win it all even still.
Player mobility is up even more. The importance of veteran defenseman is greatly reduced. This may not be by design, because the market for defensemen was greatly inflated. But the elimination of goaltending as a dynasty- or even consistency-making element of a team, worthy of being a franchise player, is also complete. And it is by design. Brodeur will probably be the last of his kind for a while.
This is all to say that I think that the value of a prediction under these circumstances is even sillier than it used to be. Sure, someone will name the proper team. But the meaningful information that that guess could have been made on is so greatly reduced as to suggest it was dumb luck, and nothing else.
Still, there are some things you can see after 10 games or so about a team. Some just aren't cohesive or mentally able to win. Those teams probably won't be Cup contenders.
So, on the basis of even less meaningful information than before, I present my predictions for 2011.
Stanley Cup: Los Angeles Kings
Eastern Conference Champion: Washington Capitals
Final Four: LAK, WAS, STL, MTL
Playoff Teams: LAK, DET, VAN, STL, DAL, CHI, ANA, COLO; PHI, WAS, MTL, PIT, NYR, BOS, OTT, TOR
// posted by Rick @ 9:49 PM 
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