Polemic Hockey

When Carey Price's contract expires at the end of the 09-10 season, he should refuse to sign unless it's for another team. He should probably sit out, or demand a trade "right fucking now."

You see, what happened to him tonight is inexcusable. After trading away Cristobol Huet to give Price the starting job in Montreal and leading them to the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and drubbing the Bruins in the first round, and showing that he was capable of responding both to the pressure of the playoffs and of responding after a bad game, this is the thanks he gets--and the team is only down 2-1.

This is a stupid ploy. First of all, it probably crushed Price's confidence. If that's the case, he probably won't live up to the potential he showed so far this season, at least not in Montreal. Second of all, Montreal isn't a shoo in for the Cup. They'd be better off developing Price into the superstar he has the potential to be than to burn him on this one iffy Cup run.

A great goalie delivers cups. They take the kind of time and patience to develop that Montreal apparently doesn't have.

Wouldn't it just be funny if he got traded to Colorado?

It almost makes you believe.

Bad things still happen to good people, and good things still happen to bad people---which is probably why it's so sweet when someone like Sean Avery gets a lacerated spleen in the middle of his team getting swept by a team that's the hockey equivalent of a buttrock 80s glam band.

Go Warrant Pens.

Around this time last year, after getting a look at a round and a half, I predicted that the Cup would come to California, with either the Ducks or the Sharks taking it.

This year, I can say that it's not. The Ducks are out, and the Sharks are simply proving, once again, that they don't have what it takes mentally. Even if they pull out this series, I simply can't see them winning the Cup after showing this kind of weakness.

I'd really like to see Montreal win it. Anybody but Detroit or the Rangers, really.

Of course last year, I picked the right Cup champ. This year I couldn't even pick the first round.

After going 2 for 8, the worst I think I've ever done in first round predictions--I'm daring to speak again. I feel shame. (;

Montreal vs. Philadelphia
The Philadelphia/Washington series was technically 3rd vs 6th seeds, but was really 6th versus 8th. Washington played with heart, but was too inconsistent and had to come back from too many deficits. Montreal--hopefully for them--learned about how tough it can be to close someone out, even when dominance was possible.
I have some reservations about Montreal's experience level, especially in net. And normally, I would have to give Marty Biron the edge over Carey Price for that reason, but I'm not going to.
Montreal in 6.

Pittsburgh vs. New York
Does Pittsburgh remember how to play hockey? They killed the half-dead Senators in no time at all. If they shake off the rust, I think they have enough firepower to make up for the fact that Lundquist is the best remaining goalie in the East.
Pittsburgh in 7.

Detroit vs. Colorado
It's almost like this was planned. We'll be able to see just how different the game is when this rivalry is rekindled--or not. I just don't think there's going to be the edge there that there was. Minnesota imploded enough to make Colorado look better than they are. And Detroit showed, once again, that they aren't as invincible as everyone thought two weeks ago. I have really mixed feelings about this one, but I think it's. . .
Detroit in 6.

San Jose vs. Dallas
Did San Jose "answer questions" by destroying Calgary in game 7? Maybe, but they were losing on home ice until Iron Mike humiliated Mikka Kipprusoff yet again, instead of calling time out. Still, to think that that shine on Dallas for ousting the Phone-it-in-ex-champs is real is silly.
San Jose in 4.

You could fix the Maple Leafs pretty quickly by doing this:

http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/1208839529203270.xml&coll=1

So, Marty is so beat down by Sean Avery that he's going to lose a series and then ditch out on team Canada? Wow.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/thewire/hockey/2008/04/22/brodeur_wouldn_t_shake/

Sportsnet says its because Avery talked about his divorce. Marty also apparently stopped talking to a beat reporter who asked about that. Is that all you have to do to get to him?

I think I read it wasn't really his wife's sister, but still. wtf.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs2003/story?id=1557270

Oopse, I guess it was his sister in law. I guess I was dumb to believe his book.

Every now and again during the Stevens-Niedermeyer era I would figuratively pinch myself in the full knowledge that this sort of domination best be enjoyed because it could not go on forever.

The not forever is now. Over the last several seasons the Devils have lost Stevens, Niedermeyer, Rafalski and Gomez. The only true impact player they have gained in that time is Zach Parise. Is it any wonder that, since the lockout, each team has been a little bit weaker than the one before.

The Devils got their share of bounces and calls, but were still thoroughly dominated by the Manhattan Hessians. The Devils have lots of good players, but the Hessians had often great players like Gomez, Drury and Jagr. Brodeur once again peaked between games thirty and seventy of the regular season and played way too much.

The Devils still have the goaltending to be competitive again, but they need an all-star on the blue line and and up front to create enough space so that their good players do not have to be great to win. Oh, and Kevin Weekes is good enough to play 15-20 games a season.

Goddamnit. Are the final 8 teams really going to include Detroit, Dallas, Colorado, Philadelphia, and the New York Rangers?!?!?

Go Habs, Sharks, Flames, Craps, and Ruins.

Helene Elliot blames Scott Niedermayer and Mathieu Schneider.

See, Niedermayer's holdout forced Burker to get Schneider whom she says is "incurbaly soft" (??) and then forced him to get rid of Andy McDonald to bring him back, when he should have traded Schneider.

I think the Niedermayer affair was part of the problem, but I think the fact that everyone on the team had a cup except some of the bit players and Todd Bertuzzi was a motivational issue. Doug Weight won with Carolina in 2006. Schneider won with Montreal in 1993.

I also think Giguere was subpar.

This is a classic example of why you cannot predict playoff success on regular season performance. The Ducks were doing great at the end of the season, and Dallas was not.

UPDATE:

Detroit looks vulnerable. I know Nashville was number 8, but until Arnott went out, they were in the series. Postmorteming Nashville, I'm not sure what to recommend from them. They should probably get an arena lease or finish that up or whatever, and then see how it goes.

The Wild. I wonder if Jacques Lemaire's time there is over, and whether LA is interested. He seems to have lost control of the team and half their team is seemingly UFA or RFA. They've been like the Lemaire Devils without the grit and the star defensemen.

The Devils just don't have the depth, and the players they rely to play key roles aren't getting it done. Patrik Elias appears to have lost his touch. John Madden, an excellent defensive forward, had to contribute much more than his fair share of offense to keep the team in as long as they stayed. Brian Gionta has either been figured out or has also peaked. And even a team with three Selke-caliber defensive forwards and a hall of game goalie isn't going to be able to keep pucks out of the net with that defense. Looking at their obligations doesn't give me much hope. The players they need to keep are signed, and the ones they should trade are overpaid, and there are some that they need to resign as well.

{There were technical difficulties with this one, but better late than never.}

In the spirit of hatred for the cable monopoly and its inability to provide access to all of the NHL playoff games at any price I hereby offer my playoff predictions.

WEST
(1) Red Wings vs. (8) Nashville
Another year, another coasting older Red Wings team ready to have its feathers plucked. These Predators ain't no '06 Oilers though. Even with their injuries the Red Wings have too much firepower. Getting Rafalski was one of the better moves of the off season although no one talks about it. BarFood in 4. Why is Versus/NBC broadcasting every game of this slaughter? Fuck You Comcast!

(2) San Jose vs. (7) Calgary
Two first round ousters since gritting their way to the finals in '04 shows that those Flames were a good team on a special run, and not a regular top caliber contender. If Kiprusoff stands on his head then Iginla is the skater most likely to score the deciding goal, but I still like the Sharks in 6.

(3) Wild vs (6) Avs
With their trade deadline acquisitions and their dramatic import of superskilled Swede Peter Forsberg the Avs are favorites for the Stanley Cup!... in 1999. In 2008 they are the perfect snack for a Jacques Lemaire team. Wild in 5. If South Park hadn't devolved into a Budweiser commercial for right-wing acid heads it would feature Woody Paige and Comcast eating goat testicles together.

(4) Ducks vs. (5) Stars
Every six years the Intel Corporation allows it's employees to go on a six-week sabbatical. Because the work is so tiring and intense they need the extended break, in addition to their regular leave, to keep fresh over the long haul. Scott "Vinny" Niedermeyer and Teemu Selanne took a sabbatical this year. Now they are back, and while Weight/Bertuzzi haven't quite replaced Penner/MacDonald the Ducks still have the best defense in the league, a top checking line, and a top goalie. Selanne is one of the most under-estimated big game forwards in the league Turco still hasn't won anything in the playoffs and Zubov seems to be living in a Weird Al song and Brad Richards is one of the most over-rated palyers in the league. When will people realize that Dave Andreychuck was the reason the 'Ning won their cup? Ducks in 5.

EAST
(1) Canadiens vs. (8) Bruins
deClaude Julien teams always seems to play just well enough to barely lose. Habs have been truly impressive this year. Potato gun Broons offense will not test Price enough to see if he is for real, especially if Savard is not 100%. Unless Price pulls a Roman Turek this should be easy for the Habs. Habs in 4.

(2) Penguins vs. (7) Senators
Sens only avoided getting swept by the Ducks last year due to some Canardian homerism amongst the Zebras. Again, the Sens were a good team, maybe a very good team, on a special run last year. They're stuck in the pumpkin now and the NHL will not want to groom their pet Sidney for only one round. For all of my snarkiness, Pens have two scary top lines and some good grinders/goons in the bottom six. The jury is still out on their goaltending, but it won't matter against the Sens. Pens in 5.

(3) Capitals vs. (6) Flyers
Caps have developed into more than a one man show with some good cyclers and grinders in their bottom six. Flyers have become a bit more finesse-oriented, but this is intermingled with dirty play and you know that they will bring out the goon tactics if they are down by two games. Both goalies are an unknown quantity in this one, but the Caps seem to be this year's squad on a special ride. Also, if it all comes down to one play by a skater, then Ovechkin is the one most likely to make said play. Caps in 6.

(4) Devils vs. (5) Rangers
Leave it to the geniuses at Versus to short change what seems destined to be the best series of first round. Fuck you Comcast! That said, quietly the Rangers have returned to Hessian mode. Salary cap or not only Lundqist and Staal are home grown major players. Jagr, Shannahan, Straka, Gomez, Drury, and Avery -- their entire top six -- are all Hessians and amongst that group only Avery has arguably defined his career as a Ranger. Unlike past NY Hockey Hessian squads though, this group has some character and a strategy.

Most of the pundits are giving the Rangers a big talent edge up front in this series. The Devils never really replaced Gomez or Rafalski and even when they were a top ten offensive team (look it up) they always had a propensity to turn unheard of goalies into the second coming of Jacques Plante. Seen Damien Rhodes lately? Devils are bigger and a bit tougher than last year, but they lack a superlative player on offense or defense except, perhaps, for Parise. Then again, if the talent gap is so 1994-like then why were all of the games between these teams so close this year? Devils have oodles of experience and have generally limited the Rangers' chances this year and it is unlikely that the Rangers would play either Washington or Pittsburgh in the next round, thereby obviating NBC magic. Devils in 7 coin flips.


Final Word on Regular Season: The Hurricanes missed the playoffs for a second straight season. Rob Brind'Amour destroyed his knee and Cam Ward is looking more and more like a journeyman. The case for the Curse of the Double Banner Raise grows.

According to the Rags-wing media the Devils won game three on a lucky bounce. The GWG was fortuitous but hitting a skate on a cross crease pass is hardly a rare play. Conveniently, most of the NHL's corporate Hessians-lovers are forgetting the Blue Team's fortune in Game Three:

1.) Pandolfo randomly breaking his stick on a power play, making it a 5 on 3.5 which the Rags scored on.
2.) Salvador accidently batting the puck out of play on the Third Period PP that was based on a dubious penalty on Elias to begin with, turning it into a 5-3.
3.) In that 5-3 Avery getting away with egregious unsportsmanlike conduct, that should not have necessitated any new rule clarifications, before getting the goal.

No, I'm not going to say that the Rags are just lucky - they have capitalized on their breaks and played hard. They finally have a very strong goaltender; replace post-concussion Richter with Lunqvist on some of those silly late 90s teams and they probably at least make the playoffs once. All I'm saying is that the Devils are pretty good too, and seem to be their best when the powers that be really don't want them to win.

Brodeur hasn't played a good game yet in this series. Expect a 1-0 or 2-1 sort of game with both goalies being stellar.

Labels: Devils

The Ducks don't care. As far as I can count, there are only two players on the team that play regularly that don't have a Cup to their name: Todd Bertuzzi and Brian Sutherby. I guess there's also Marc-Andre Bergeron and Bobby Ryan.

It all started with the quasi-retirement of Scott Niedermayer. The team waited with baited breath for his return, and they played better after he came back, but he hasn't been the same. It makes you wonder if he was guilted into returning and his heart isn't in it. I'm not sure I buy that, because a few un-Scottyish gaffes aside, he has been one of the best players for the Ducks.

It's the rest of them that don't seem to care.

But not caring after a winning a Cup and going through the short off-season (twice) is one thing. It's close to impossible to repeat now, with the salary cap that makes no concessions for home grown players, or, better yet, retaining whatever players you currently have. The Ducks won the Cup. Asking them to repeat is greedy.

It's not as bad a showing as the Sharks have put in.

Last year, the Sharks and Ducks appeared headed for a Western Conference Finals apocalyptic clash. The Ducks were running through Roberto Luongo's Canucks, and the Sharks seemed to have the Red Wings under control. But then the Sharks blew it. They exposed the Red Wings enough to show how to beat them, but they couldn't get it done.

Add this to the list of previous underachieving Sharks teams. Last year, it seemed worth it to spend the picks to get some players. This year, it seemed to work magic. But it's clear that Brian Campbell isn't the player they needed. They need a Claude Lemieux-type. Guess what? It looks like they need . . . Owen Nolan. Ouch.

The Sharks meteoric rise was all for naught (unless they advance, I suppose) because now they've lost home ice to the Flames. Ruh Roh.

I don't care what numbers they wear, Dainus Zubrus is no Bobby Holik, David Clarkson is no Scott Gomez, Karel Rachunek is no Brian Rafalski, and for God's sake--Mike Mottau is no Scott Niedermayer. Worse, Patrik Elias isn't Elias anymore and Brian Gionta isn't himself either.

Marty is still Marty, and that's usually enough.

I don't think many people could have imagined this not too long ago, but you have to add the New Jersey Devils to the list of "storied" franchises. You could write a compelling book about the team, and its rise from mediocracy to dynasty.

The MSG Network has done a good job with that, and, my guess is that they way they have done it bothers the NHL—or maybe they don't care about some Newark street tough telling Eric Lindros to "get your head up, dummy!"

Anyway, long before Scott Stevens castrated Eric Lindros, and even long before the rinsing of the vaunted Detroit Red Wings, there was The Donut Incident.

Brilliant.

[P.S. One thing that might not make it into a book written now, but something that I think we be readily apparent later is just how many things the NHL did to stop everything the Devils did in general, and Marty Brodeur in particular. And they still won. Has any team in any sport faced down so many challenges from other teams and the league?]

Each year, the Holik Award for Incompetent Arrogance is awarded to the good player on a good team from the previous season that chooses to jump ship to another squad for greater acclaim or money or both only to see his former team be more successful. The Holik Award is named for Bobby "Greedy Republican" Holik who chose to Benedict Arnold to the NY Hockey Hessians (AKA Ranger$) after the 01-02 season for a briefcase full of cash. The Rag$ never made the playoffs with Holik and the Devils won their third cup without him in 2003. Since that trade Holik has only been to the playoffs once (as a Thrasher swept, coincidentally, by the Rag$).

This year's Holik Award was almost too obvious from the get go. Dustin Penner was a critical cog in the Ducks' Cup conquest in 2007. His ability to cycle, grind and score on the third line wore down opposing defensemen and kept momentum in the Duck's favor while their more established stars took a breather. Of course, Penner was also fortuitous to be behind players like Teemu Selanne who demand the opposition's best checkers and defensemen.

I'll cut Penner a little slack for taking the outrageous money offered to him. This seemed to be the result of a GM pissing contest between Edmonton and Anahiem -- Penner did not agitate for the move. Moreover, any hockey player is only one errant puck, chippy hit, or bad patch of ice away from having their life's work destroyed at any moment, so I can appreciate the need for a big pay day. Still, the facts speak for themselves. Penner put up similar stats this year, but Edmonton fell out of playoff contention long ago and the Ducks, bouyed be the never improbable return of Scott "Vinny" Niedermeyer and Selanne, are back in the tournament and positioned to make a strong run. There were never even any other finalists for this year's Holik Award -- it was always Dustin Penner.

2008 Holik Award
Dustin Penner (EDM. Old Team: ANA)

Past Winners
2007: Zdeno Chara
2006: Nikolai Khabibulin
2004: Bobby Holik
2003: Bobby Holik

Labels: Bobby Holik, Dustin Penner

Good:

West. Got 7 out of 8 playoff teams correct. (Picked Vancouver over Calgary.)

West:
In: San Jose, Detroit, Vancouver, Anaheim, Minnesota, Colorado, Dallas, Nashville.
Out: Phoenix, Los Angeles, Chicago, Edmonton, Calgary, St. Louis, Columbus.

I could see St. Louis making it this year, and I could also see Calgary replacing Dallas. I just don't think Nashville is going to fall that far. The rest of the teams are not even in the mix.

The bad:

I whiffed on the East, only getting 5 out of 8, and picking Tampa and the Islanders to make the playoffs.

East:
In: Buffalo, Ottawa, Montreal, Rangers, Islanders, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay
Out: Carolina, Florida, Atlanta, Washington, Philadelphia, Boston, Toronto.

The ugly:

I like Vancouver for the Cup. I'm going with a semi-darkhorse. If Scott Niedermayer returns, and the Ducks replace Teemu Selanne's scoring either by his return or through a Bryzgalov trade, all bests are off, and I favor them to repeat.

Vancouver didn't even make the playoffs and I was picking them for a Cup run on Luongo's back. Fortunately, I Teemu and Nieds activated by waffle.

I still pick the Ducks to repeat, now that those two are back.

First Round:

Detroit vs. Nashville
Detroit in 5.