Polemic Hockey

ESPN Magic--or whatever today's latter-day media fellation of teams is called--fails because it latches on to teams not for merit and not even for overall popularity--but for local popularity. The Avs, Flyers, and Stars may sell out seats, but they are not tastemakers. Making those teams prosper will never help the league overall. (In the post-ESPN era we have to add the Penguins, who may be popular enough to meet my requirements.) Much as I love to bash them, the Rangers are probably appropriate ESPN Magic recipients.

But so are several teams that don't.

Still get ESPN magic. Yeesh.

Until we get a fixed set of rules from the league on what amounts to what kind of suspension, every single one will remain in question.

8 games for Pronger may seem like a lot if you credit that he was just trying to get loose, and very light if you think it was intentional.

I think he gets off light, but for a different reason. If he hadn't taken a substantial suspension now, he would have been constantly suspended in the playoffs for every minor thing.

Using the same criteria as below, I think you have to say that the Ducks are still the team to beat in the west. If goaltending is paramount, defense comes second--and the Ducks, even with a series of suspensions, have both of those in spades.

San Jose is on fire right now, but they have huge playoff question marks hanging on them. One wonders whether Detroit burned too bright early in the season.

Minnesota and, if they get it, Vancouver will be tough outs. It will be interesting, to say the least, and a lot depends on the actual matchups, but right now, I'm picking the Ducks.

If one is willing, one can do better than average in predicting playoff outcomes if one relies on strength of goaltending and experience, almost without weighing any other factor.

That draws me to the conclusion that the Devils are the team to beat in the east. By goaltending, I don't mean what goes on in the regular season, and I certainly don't mean what goes on in one regular season. That eliminates the Canadiens and Penguins from those categories. Experience alone leaves Carolina and Ottawa, but the goaltending question reduces the equation to an iffy endorsement of Carolina. Anyone who predicts that Alex Ovechkin will hat trick the Capitals into the Finals hasn't been watching the game long enough.

The problem with this diagnosis is that this year, 9 points separates the bottom playoff seed from the top. It's hard to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Still, the Devils and the Hurricanes, and to some extent the Senators, seem to have the advantage. I also wouldn't discount how horny people are for the Penguins to make a run--what used to be called ESPN magic.

Once the matchups are set, we'll know more, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a New Jersey/Carolina final.