Polemic Hockey

If one is willing, one can do better than average in predicting playoff outcomes if one relies on strength of goaltending and experience, almost without weighing any other factor.

That draws me to the conclusion that the Devils are the team to beat in the east. By goaltending, I don't mean what goes on in the regular season, and I certainly don't mean what goes on in one regular season. That eliminates the Canadiens and Penguins from those categories. Experience alone leaves Carolina and Ottawa, but the goaltending question reduces the equation to an iffy endorsement of Carolina. Anyone who predicts that Alex Ovechkin will hat trick the Capitals into the Finals hasn't been watching the game long enough.

The problem with this diagnosis is that this year, 9 points separates the bottom playoff seed from the top. It's hard to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Still, the Devils and the Hurricanes, and to some extent the Senators, seem to have the advantage. I also wouldn't discount how horny people are for the Penguins to make a run--what used to be called ESPN magic.

Once the matchups are set, we'll know more, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a New Jersey/Carolina final.