Polemic Hockey

Check this out.

"I think when he signed that contract, he feels, in a lot of ways, that he owes it to the team to play out the remainder of his contract. I think that does play a factor. I don't think the money has ever been a factor in his decision."

I think he does owe it to the team to play out his contract, but Burke is correct that he's earned the right to do whatever he wants. Having said that, his agent dropping quotes like this signals that he is planning on coming back. Or this:

"I think he had contemplated [retirement] more initially than he had recently."

Still, if I'm the Ducks, I might try to get Sheldon Souray or Ryan Smith. Temmu's agent made it clear if he comes back, it will only be in Anaheim, so there is no rush to sign him. The Ducks can sign a UFA, and then fit Teemu in the remainder of the budget. Cap space is no problem, as long as they do not pay more than $5m or $6m for any FA.

Update: The cap is $50.3m, a roughly $6m increase.

I thought I was going to take a break from hockey post Cup, but for whatever reason, I didn't. So, I've spent an inordinate amount of time looking at cap numbers, etc., rumors, etc., and I've discovered what the Devils plans are for this summer:

Nothing.

Rafalski re-signing remains likely, Gomez leaving remains a near certainty, and there is nothing stronger than speculation about what signing the Devils might make to shore up their defense (Roman Hamrlik?).

C'mon, Lou. We don't have Marty for much longer. Time to do something, here.

1. Chris Drury -- If you're trying to get a player to sell tickets and score flashy goals, look lower on this list. If you want to win a Stanley Cup, sign him.
Rumored to go to: San Jose, Rangers. My guess: Colorado

2. Ryan Smyth -- If Smitty had won one, I'd have a harder time ranking him below Drury.
Rumored to go to: Calgary. My guess: Toronto

3. Sheldon Souray -- Wanna fix yer PP? Bingo. He'll put up some big numbers.
Rumors: Rangers, New Jersey, LA, Anaheim. My guess: If Niedermayer is retiring, the Ducks go all out; otherwise, I think he'll go to LA.

4. Daniel Briere -- He turned out to be a very valuable top six forward in Buffalo, but I never saw him as quite as clutch as Drury.
Rumors: Philly. My guess: Philly.

5. Scott Gomez -- He's not going to be the answer some teams think he is, but paired with the right sniper, he'll still put up big numbers, and he's one of the better trap busters out there.
Rumors: Philly, Rangers. My guess: Colorado.

6. Brian Rafalski -- He's got a couple of good years left, and not holding the responsibility as a team's #1 would greatly improve him.
Rumors: New Jersey. My guess: New Jersey

7. Paul Kariya -- I think he's found his niche as a mere top six forward and not the ultimate go to guy. Rumors are he's returning to the Preds, but why on earth would he?
Rumors: Nashville, Anaheim. My guess: Vancouver

8. Jason Blake -- He's fast, but he's a locker-room cancer.
Rumors: Leafs, Islanders, Sabres. My guess: Calgary

9. Michael Nylander -- He's not the Swedish Gretzky, but he's a decent setup man.
Rumors: NY Rangers, Calgary, Pittsburgh, Ottawa, Philadelphia My guess: Back to the Rangers

10. Mathieu Schneider -- There really aren't a ton of defensemen available, and, despite his age, I think he could beef up a PP.
Rumors: Detroit, Montreal. My guess: Rangers.

Some reports had Niedermayer's retirement as "imminent" 10 days ago. Is he backing off?

Rancho Santa Margarita, which was a place that was known for its mountain lion maulings when I was a kid, up in the foothills of eastern Orange County, just produced a first round pick.

California is a middle-tier hockey market. How much evidence do people need to understand that it is not the same as the South?

UPDATE:

California has produced the sixth most NHLers of any state, only after Minnesota, Michigan, Mass., New York, and Ill.

I've been in Alaska running with caribou and so forth for the last two weeks, but I just wanted to point out that the Giguere rumors were BS. He resigned and this hasn't presented a cap problem for the Ducks. Another hit to the credibility of the hockey press.

They did score some points with me with the Niedermayer retirement rumors. We'll see. My gut tells me he'll be back for a chance to defend the Cup, and that bringing Giguere back only bolsters that possibility.

If Niedermayer returns and the Ducks get a decent return for Bryzgalov, they have to be the favorite to win in 08 as well. Draft day should be interesting.

I'm curious to see what, if anything, the movements out east set in motion.

UPDATE:

1. The LA Times reports this morning that no budget has been set by the Samuelis. I don't know where the idea that it had been got started, nor do I know where the idea that the Ducks were in Cap trouble with Giguere (in the end the cap hit is $2M more, with the cap increasing by much more than that). Of course Burke is going to say the payroll is low. If not, it's like walking into a car dealership and saying "I gotta have this car." How can you set a payroll before the playoffs, where much extra revenue comes in that is unpredictable? None of that reporting makes sense. Keeping the same payroll will allow Burke to find a suitable winger for the top six if Selanne retires. All bets are off if Scott Niedermayer retires, freeing an additional $6.75M, which, I believe would be directed at Sheldon Souray, who wants to move to California to be near his daughter.

2. The rumors are flying about Bryzgalov and the draft pick. I identified some potential places for Bryz to land, and I hinted Tampa was the most interesting. It is even more interesting if Selanne really is retiring. The eastern teams with needs in net are Florida, Tampa, Boston, Toronto, and maybe Washington. I'm not sure I can see Bryz going west unless the price is high. I'm also not sure what kind of Burke-style players Boston and Washington have.

3. The Devils are in a miserable position right now. They haven't appeared to make a move on Brian Rafalaski, and they don't have a first rounder. Compound that with the fact that the Flyers are trying to get the rights to Gomez!

The mainstream hockey commentariot routinely creates a false choice between skillful play and fighting, as if every player in the league is either a derivation of Wayne Gretzky or Bob Probert. This is an ESPN highlight package view of the game: one that only shows goals, extremly hard - usuallt injury causing- hits, and fights.

Lost in the deck is the majority of the actual game; all of the "little things" that set the stage for goals, knockdowns and fisticuffs. This is where the Ducks excelled and largely won the series. Indeed, the turning point of the series was a long shift that the Ducks 4th line, with Brad May on it, had in the opening game against the Sens' top line. They kept the Sens bottled in the defense zone defending their cycle and absorbing several hard hits. The absolute crucial play was an open ice hit that Brad May put on Jason Spezza as Spezza tried to skate the puck out of the zone.

Spezza, his line, and the Sens were not the same after that hit. Spezza committed numerous unforced errors, the team grew frustrated and the defense broke down.

Scoring, finesse and skill are important and exhilirating aspects of hockey. What makes hockey feral and thrilling is that "finesse" players have to be tough enough to take a figurative punch from a player like May and still work their magic. Spezza and the Sens had the skills but not the guts. The Ducks had the guts that made room for their skills. That is why they won handily.

Goes to show how having a full-time job and a Center Ice so as to not need to wait for the intermission of the Penguins/Flyers game on Versus to catch up on news from The League will do to one's overall hockey knolwedge. After the finals it is clear as a mountain lake the the Sens were a good team on a special run rather than a great team playing up to its abilities. Commentators said that the brawl with the Sabres was a turning point for the club. True. Almost all teams, however, go through strong runs of ten and even twenty games. The Sens' was a bit more, which is a credit to them, but all of these stretches come to a close and the median reasserts themselves. The Sens were a good team with a strong first line, solid but not spectacular defense and average goaltending. That is all. They only won one game in the series by way of Mario Kart officiating. Moreover, the classless actions of their captain and the sloppy play of their defense as the series progressed proved that they were substantially overmatched.

I doubt that the Sens will make it past Round Two next year.

I'm going to the parade tonight before I head to Alaska for a vacation, but I wanted to discuss anti-Ducks post-Cup meme #2: that the Ducks win will cause teams to play rougher. That may be, but if the teams copy that, they will fail. Look at the suspensions, power plays against, etc. the Ducks faced in the playoffs. Most teams will get blown away if they do that. Not a good idea to copy unless you've got Pronger, Niedermayer, and Giguere.

I'm going to blog this now just because the post-Cup coverage has discussed it to death, and I've done a lot of thinking about it. That is, hockey's place in California.

If it will never satisfy some writers until the sport is viewed with the same passion as in Canada in California, then they can forget it. There are just too many people here—more here alone than in the entire county of Canada. Compound that with the innumerable diversions available here. In the Spring, you can ski in the morning and surf in the afternoon. You can visit wine country, or go ice climbing. And a big chunk of that 30m are Hispanic, who are mad for fútbol, not hockey. (La Opinión, the major Spanish language newspaper in LA did not have an article about the Ducks.) In such a multi-faceted society, almost nothing dominates. The Canadians seem to think all of Socal is enraptured with Paris Hilton, as if we're all 20m paparazzi.

That the Ducks and Sharks have a strong season ticket base at all is indicative of an amazing job by those teams. They are well covered by local media, including Fox Sports.

More importantly, people in California play hockey, ice hockey, and in other forms. Just down the 22 from the Ponda is a neighborhood skating facility in Garden Grove, a few miles from where I grew up in Huntington Beach. Not far from that, in LA County, is an old hockey rink where I learned to skate, in Paramount.

So, while no one would ever mistake this for Canada, numbers are on California's side. Even if a tiny fraction of the state is interested in hockey, that is literally more than a few Canadian provinces. And that's how it will have to be. But the presence here is better than people think. California is the eastern europe of hockey development, it is not hockey's Africa--that's the South outside Florida.

You can make a case to contract the NHL, a case I would agree with. But to put LA, San Jose, or Anaheim in the top 10 of that hit list would be a mistake.

But no matter what quality of fan you have, the Cup isn't won by the team with the best ratings. Give them an Emmy. The Cup goes to the Champion on the ice, not the silver screen. Isn't it ironic? The Canadians are the ones with the Hollywood mentality about the game, as if their fandom entitles a winner, whereas here, on the Left Coast, we're content to let those who ignore the sport ignore it, and let two quality teams and one emerging team do their thing on the ice.

OK, shoot me for this. I can't resist.

Ouch.

I'm not sure I even would expect anyone from the Anaheim media to be this cruel.

Oh, brother, did these Senators wilt. Spezza was so bad that his coach Bryan Murray vehemently berated him during the second period for his endless ennui. Spezza gave it right back because he must have been thinking about his loser coach whose playoff record smells like the Staten Island landfill.

For all his years in the NHL, Murray has never won a Stanley Cup and owns an egregiously under .500 playoff record. What he does best is hiss, moan and rip the referees as he did again last night with a wonderful result, another playoff exit on a road paved with alibis.

When all is said and done, the favorites lost because, for the first time in the playoffs, Ottawa faced a tough team; a club that hit and hit and hit. The Senators -- Heatley, Spezza, Redden -- couldn't take it. The so-called tough guy, Chris Neil, specialized in cheap shots as did Alfredsson, whose gutless shooting-the-puck-directly at-Scott Niedermayer in Game Four will go down in hockey infamy.

It's to the Ducks credit that -- once the game was in the bag -- they didn't head-hunt Alfie who was running so scared in the third period, he threw away the puck for the final goal that sealed Ottawa's doom.

The chauvinist, Canadian, cry-baby, hockey media has been having trouble handling the Senators demise. They hate the idea that yet another American team is keeping The Cup away from being in The Dominion. They still fantasize that they own hockey and the fact that a team from Anaheim, of all places, won The Cup, burns them to the very core.

Before I sign off for the summer (there might be another post or two), I want to talk about what I see the Ducks doing this summer.

First, I genuinely believe they will revise their budget based on the number of sellouts this year, the playoff revenue, the Championship buzz, and the massive increase in season ticket subscribers. I believe they will use that money to keep this team together, including Giguere, and Selanne if he wants to return (I don't think he will).

The Ducks still have Tampa's first round pick, and a proven playoff goalie that they don't need in Ilya Bryzgalov. That, and the attendant $6M of cap space that Selanne's retirement would probably create would likely translate into a top six forward. Assuming Burke doesn't want Bryz getting revenge 4 or 8 times per year, the eastern teams that would be upgraded by Bryz: Toronto, Ottawa, Boston, Tampa, Atlanta, and Washington. The most intriguing possibility is there if you think about it, but that's a long shot.

Let's also not forget that Bobby Ryan will have a good chance to make the team next year.

In other words, despite the incorrect press reports, this team has the financial strength and cap room to put an even superior team on the ice next year, without dipping into the UFA market.

This will probably create a rush to sign UFAs and make other trades to compete with the Champs, a rush that the Ducks will probably not participate in, other than a possible draft day deal (which is definitely contingent on Selanne retiring).

The team that has to be kicking themselves, though maybe not as much as Ottawa, is the San Jose Sharks. They were not rewarded for their do-it-right efforts and much greater consistency than the Ducks over the years, and now, no matter what, they will always be the second (or third?) team to win the Cup for California. They made two huge deadline deals that didn't make a difference, and, frankly, should have at least made it to the conference finals.

If they decide that adding size will help them beat the Ducks, they are mistaken. There will be no single way to defeat the Ducks until this team is broken up by the cap, probably after 08-09 season. A team would be much better off continuing to build its own identity and winning that way, instead of reacting. That goes double for the Sharks whose own window isn't that long, either.

In the east, the picture is very different. All the pundits claiming the West was better this year were right. They will work even harder to improve next year. There's too much information for me to process there to think about it yet. We'll see.

Final playoff prediction record: 12-3, which would have been one better, but I had committed myself to NJ in the second round earlier. I got the Conn Smythe winner wrong, but I'm glad I did. The only things I really got wrong was Detroit--totally underestimated them.

16-5.

Dominant from start to finish this playoff season. The Cup is in California for the first time ever! What else can you say?

If the Ducks win tomorrow, and the somewhat justifiable karma denies Giguere his second Conn Smythe, that karma should mean Scott Niedermayer gets it. He probably should have had it in 2003. That's a simple way to fix all of those karmatic loops.

If you really watch this team, you know it's all about Niedermayer. Pronger might score more points and get more notice, but he's the team. If they can't vote for Giggy, give it to Scott.

This is nothing against Pahlsson, but day in day out, it's Giggy and Scott Niedermayer that make this team.

UPDATE: Damien Cox makes the case for Nieds.

The Beard is relentless against Sens. Ouch.

Sportsnet.ca picked up on Helene Elliot's—who is normally a spectacular hockey scribe—FUD about J.S. Giguere. But check this out. Al Strachan says the cap is going to $50M next year.

There is no cap problem in Anaheim.

Again, the article states, "Salary cap economics may be the deciding factor on whether or not Jean-Sebastien Giguere will stay with the Anaheim Ducks."

No it won't. The factors will be (1) the Ducks' internal budget; (2) Giguere's preference; (3) the result in the final. Once again, there is a lot of talk that Selanne will retire which would completely moot this.

This is a great example of garbage-in garbage-out. I'm just a blogger. If I got paid and had research support, and a J-school degree, I don't think I would expect to keep my job if I kep doing these things.

Prove the conspiracy nuts wrong.

Show that the league cares about dangerous plays. Show us something, please. Can you tell me that hits to the head are worse than shooting pucks at someone? Then what's with all the goalie equipment. Exactly. It's just as dangerous, and let's face it--it's just sissified to do that.

Alfredsson should have to sit in the press box for that, and it should be the first line on his obituary. Shot puck at future hall of famer like a little girl.

UPDATE: The silence is deafening. The only place I can find calling for Alfie to get suspended is the NY Post. Of course, Brett Hull said they deserved to lose the game because of it. But, I'm still waiting for these unsportsmanlike, severe, injury-intending plays to be punished by the league.

Fox says "classless."

And let's not forget, John Muckler was comparing Alfredsson to six time champion Mark Messier just a few days ago, and TSN.ca had already handed him the Conn Smythe after Round 3.

Bob McKenzie: "I find it incredulous that any player in the NHL, let alone one of the stature of Daniel Alfredsson, would deliberately fire a puck at another player, but it certainly appeared that was his intention."

In other words, we've spilled too much ink praising this guy to bash him without more, even though we know he did it.

UPDATE II: This is just another Exhibit in the foibles of the NHL's enforcement policies. All they need to do is have clearly articulated standards based on intent and act, just like the criminal law. This time, a player's reputation saved him. Apparently the league agrees with Murry, "Danyo Awfedsson doesn't do that."

Whatever. The Ducks shouldn't care. Just win.

My ex-girlfriend taught me some powerful hockey voodoo and it worked tonight. By completely blacking myself out from the game, not watching it, not reading about it, I singlehandedly caused the Ducks to win Game 4.

And that post below? I wasn't serious. It was just part of the act. (I really didn't watch, though.)

Since it's very clear that it's going to be Sens in 6, I'm not going to watch. Take that NBC! One tenth of your California audience isn't gonna watch! (i.e., just me).

While the Pronger hit and the evidently not kicking motion goal will get most of the attention, the true turning point in Game 3 was the bizarre hooking penalty on Vinny Nidermeyer in the Second Period. At that point the Ducks were winning 3-2 and had mostly outplayed the Sens. Perhaps there was something that the ref saw that I could not, but from my vantage point that was not even close to a penalty; even the Versus crew agreed.

The Ducks killed that one off but it begat a real penalty on O'Donnell that the Sens scored on. Again, no disrespect to the Sens. They did indeed score the goals - not the Refs. They are a talented and able team. Still, that was not a penalty. It appeared to be another prime example of Mario Kart Officiating: Giving the losing team every chance that it can to draw even.

Lame.

Despite watching hockey for over two decades, playing a little, reading books, going to dozens and dozens of games, I learned during game 3 that I am ignorant.

I don't know what icing is.
I don't know what hooking is.
I don't know what a kicking motion is.
I don't know what is (or is not) an intentional offsides.

So, I'm thinking I might just have to break up with hockey. Because I know when a team is being home fielded and it's not worth watching.

Is soccer on today?

This is why you never believe it when they say someone is out permanently.

I'm not sure this is going to make much difference, but, assuming that this returns the top line to something like it's normal self, the Ducks should be stoked.

First a Detroit paper suggested that the Wings should go after Giguere, then the LA Times own Helene Elliot raised FUD about Giguere's departure.

[Please pay attention to this part:]
This is not about predictions. Maybe he will leave, but the grounds given are always salary cap issues. But the Ducks don't have salary cap issues.

And I quote "Admire him for the fine goalie and even finer person that he is because in the new salary-capped NHL, economics may dictate that these will be his final days with the team he helped transform from a movie-inspired marketing ploy into a playoff power."

The Ducks have approximately $27M committed for next season, leaving them with over $20M to sign approximately 20 players, almost all of whom currently make near the league minimum. Assume gigantic raises for some of the Ducks' emerging stars. Penner gets $1.5M, Moen gets $1M. That leaves on Teemu Selanne and Giguere who would be missed. Pay Giguere the $7M he's worth, and bring Teemu back at $6M as well. Give the remaining spare parts a 10% raise, or swap them out for new ones, and assume Bobby Ryan ($850k) is going to replace one of them.

That highball scenario still only about $21M of additional salary, which is under the league's theoretical cap of $49M next year.

Plus, c'mon. They love Teemu in Anaheim, but if it's between Giguere, who might win the Conn Smythe AGAIN, and Selanne... Anyway, odds are good that Teemu will retire if the Ducks win the Cup. That completely resolves the scenario.

C'mon. Do some research. Do some thinking.

If Giguere wants to leave, print that, or even an innuendo or a rumor about that. Say that his fight with Carlyle over not starting game 1 in round 1 is fueling speculation he wants out.

But don't make shit up about the salary cap that's not real. And don't blithely suggest that Ilya Bryzgalov is out of the doghouse in Anaheim. He stuck his foot in his mouth last summer in the Russian papers, and both Carlyle and Giguere have shoved it up his ass this year.

UPDATE: Bob McKenzie says this is probably Teemu's swan song.

UPDATE 2: Please note that I have not said Giguere will stay or made any prognostications about the Ducks budget next year. With Selanne's retirement likely, this entire discussion is moot. Giguere will stay if he wants, leave if he doesn't.