Polemic Hockey

If you ever are looking for the test case to prove that sports journalism is a contradiction in terms, hockey fans need to look no further than Al Strachan. Look, it's not even that these guys are wrong—it's that they don't operate according to any rules.

Take today's piece.

The mandatory controversy in that game had to do with a goal that was scored after the period ended but because the in-house clock had started 0.7 seconds after the puck was dropped for the faceoff, the goal was allowed.

That was no real surprise. It is one of the givens in the NHL that the New Jersey Devils always get favorable treatment. Witness the fact that according to The Ottawa Sun, the NHL wanted the series to begin on Tuesday — which would have made Saturday's figure-skating show irrelevant — but Devils GM Lou Lamoriello refused because he wanted his team to have the maximum recuperation time from its first-round series with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

This is thinly-veiled Ottawa homerism. Strachan doesn't mention whether it is irregular for the clock to be a few tenths of a second late at the beginning, whether there is a review process for that, whether the rules say that it's waived if not followed up at the beginning--just assumes it was an evil Devils plot at the faceoff beginning of the period because they knew they were going to score a last second goal. In other words, there's no reporting, no facts, no evidence, just a hit piece.

What if Ottawa had scored in that extra 0.7? There was no way of knowing in advance. No irregular procedure was followed there. Strachan just likes to slam the Devils. And then he blames Lamoriello for doing what he's supposed to--advocate for his team.

The idea that the league gives the Devils special treatment--and Strachan doesn't even back that up with even any allegations, let alone facts--is flatly contradicted by Bobby Clarke's imposition of the trapezoid rule to punish Marty Brodeur.

The column, of course starts with an attack against Madison Square Garden, and an attack on the league for getting the Rangers' disallowed goal wrong:

But in the middle of it all was a disallowed goal that was perfectly good and the whole thing was played on an ice surface that was an absolute disgrace.

The goal should have been allowed, but, as Devils' fans know, these mistakes seem to happen to everyone. As for the ice surface, just what are they supposed to do? Make MSG for the Rangers only? Then it wouldn't have the same cachet. It would be the Rangers' arena. So what?

Ice is horrible in about 20-25 of the league's arenas. Why attack New Jersey and New York about it? Why? Because they were the teams playing in games that Strachan wanted to use to highlight his hit piece on NHL officials.

The people who run the NHL should get up every morning and thank whatever supreme being they believe in — apparently the almighty dollar — for the players. Despite all the encumbrances from above, the players are carrying this league and if it is ever to find its salvation, it will be the players who lead it there.

Oy vey. This is left over sour grapes from the lockout, pure and simple. The bias is revealed right there. The players could have formed their own league during the lockout, but they didn't. If the league didn't need the management and the owners, that could have happened. But, the reality is, someone has to run the league. Yes, they screw things up, and, yes, the ice should be better, but the reality someone else would be whining for the exact opposite reasons. The person who makes the call is always going to be criticized. So after a while, after reading piece after piece like this, it's no wonder they stop listening.

It's not that I'm not critical of the league for a lot of the same things (fix the ice=yay!), and I don't do it with crack reporting. The difference is, I have a low-traffic blog, I don't write for a newspaper or a news website.

UPDATE: The AP does a better job, at least asking for a he said/she said on it.

"It probably happens quite often, you just don't have goals scored on them," Murray said when asked if the delay was unusual. "That doesn't mean I have to accept it but that's the way it is."

Lou Lamoriello, New Jersey's president, general manager and head coach, was unaware of the controversy when the Devils arrived here for a meeting later in the day.

"I didn't notice that, nor did I look for that, nor would I think that that was done," said Lamoriello, who didn't know that local officials had worked the game. "If you can come up with any suggestions I'd like to hear it because it's a human hand that's dropping the puck and it's a human hand that's putting the clock on. If there's a better way of doing it I don't have the answer right now."

No one checked up on whether this has been a noted problem, or just one that cost a Canadian team a goal.

POST-SEASON UPDATE: Retrospectively, you can see at this point that the Canadian media is firing on all cylinders. This might have been what The Beard was talking about with the "Cry Baby" Canadian media in his slam on the Sens after the Finals. This conspiracy theorizing about the Devils and the clock and the Rangers and the ice, and also the Devils and the scheduling, is the same kind of undermining they did in the Finals, when the scribes wrote about almost everything except the play on the ice.

With a lot going on in the real world, I forgot to post. Here's my thoughts on the weekend's games.

I thought the Rangers were getting hosed on the calls in game 3. I'm not sure I can remember ever thinking that before. I thought the Ducks were too.

Jamie Langenbrunner saves the season for the Devils! They play better on the road in the playoffs quite often, so going into Ottawa tied at 1-1 isn't the end of the world.

I think if San Jose can focus just a bit more mentally, they can win this series handily.

I don't know if it coincided with the Devils' loss last night, which ended up being not as bad as it could have been, or if it's just that the market opens in about 2 months, but the Star Ledger has a story about Scott Gomez's impending free agency.

Gomez is a good--even great player, but I would let him go. Even if the cap goes up to $49M next year, the Devils are still going to have very little room, and giving Gomez a $1.5M raise won't leave much room for anything else, and, if this year was any indication, the Gomez led offense wasn't enough. The Devils were cellar dwellers in the GF column, and were downright stinky 5 on 5.

That extra $1.5M could bring Petr Sykora back (if he's welcome), something that might reinvigorate Patrik Elias. The remaining $5m could go a long way towards shoring up other areas.

I won't say who the money should go to, but I think it's time for a change of direction up front for this team.

1. NJ vs. OTT......... wtf>!@? After the first period, you'd've thought the series was oooooovah. Devils storm back, but just not quite (missing Elias?) and ... well, still lose.

2. SJ vs. DET. Toldya. Detroit just isn't as good as their regular season record indicates. Sharks just took home ice away from the #1 seed.

My thoughts on last night's action.

1. Sean Avery gambled with his mouth. If the Rangers won that game, all of his trash talking might have had an impact on the Sabres. But the Rangers were humiliated in that game. The Rangers live in their own echo chamber a bit much, with their local media predicting them to sweep.

2. Not to let too much air out of Buffalo, but in the NCAA they would lose some ranking points on strength of schedule. And so would the Rangers.

3. Vancouver was dominated in every way in Game 1. With all of the focus on Luongo, it was Giguere that made the best saves of the game, and Luongo who got the hook. You cannot beat the Ducks if their first line scores more than a goal, because their secondary scoring is so potent. Vancouver will be better in game 2, or else this series will be short.

About tonight...

1. No Elias. The Devils can't afford to lose him now.

2. San Jose will of course try to win the game, but they should emphasize putting some punishing hits on Detroit. It'll pay dividends later.

The Beard, dean of the college of Ranger-fellating, predicted a sweep for the Rangers (wtf lolcano!!!111) Sorry, Stan. Na Ga Hap Pen.

Heh. Here's a link to The Beard recanting his sweep prediction for ... wait for it... Rangers in 5.

As I noted below, Luongo is good, but Giguere is no slouch. Giguere has the edge in momentum saves so far, and the Ducks have shown no problem scoring on Luongo.

UPDATE: Luongo gets the hook. This is the most dominant game played by any western conference team this year so far. Vancouver better figure something out.

(1) Buffalo Sabres vs. (6) New York Rangers
This is a bad matchup for the Rangers. Though they arguably have the advantage in net, the Rangers offense is no match for the juggernaut in Buffalo.
Buffalo in 5.

(2) New Jersey Devils vs. (4) Ottawa Senators
New Jersey beat Tampa by tipping the balance ever so slightly in favor of Brodeur and their checking line and ever so slightly against St. Louis and Lecavalier. Ottawa's more balanced attack will be much more difficult for New Jersey to contain. If Ottawa's secondary scoring shows up, this could be a short series. Ottawa in 6.

UPDATE: It's dishonest hedging of me to pick a final four of NJ, BUF, SJ, and ANA and then pick Ottawa here. I'm changing to New Jersey in 7.

Recap of 1st round predictions so far:

6 for 6 in decided series. I've got Calgary (down 3 to 2) and Vancouver (tied at 3) in the other 2.

Update: 7-1. Missed on the Flamers.

What a goal by Trevor Linden, eh?

(1) Detroit vs. (5) San Jose

Detroit couldn't even put a very mediocre (not counting Kipper) Calgary team to bed quickly or easily. San Jose has answers for Detroit. In this series, it's all about the Sharks more vigorous lineup. SHARKS IN 6.

(2) Anaheim vs. (3) Vancouver

Luongo will have to state his case for the Conn Smythe in this one if he's going to make the Vancouver Pop Gun offense stand up against the Ducks, and not a similarly enzyte test case-ish Dallas 'o.' Luongo is great, but he's not that much better than Giggy. Anaheim's defense more than makes up the difference between these goalies, and Anaheim's more potent offense does the rest. DUCKS IN 5.

I went 7 for 8 in the first round. I haven't done that well in a long, long time.

UPDATE: Another series, right on the money. I think I basically nailed the analysis of the Ducks series, but I didn't point out the huge mismatch on special teams. Go Sharks.

(1) Buffalo versus (6) Rags

Were the Thrash that bad or were the Rags that good? Hard to tell, probably a combination of both. The Rags have been playing determined hockey since February. They have enough moxie to steal one of the first two games. From there, Buffalo puts it into high gear.

Sabres in 6.

(2) Devils versus (4) Senators

If Richard Matvichuk had been a trade deadline pick up it would have been one of the most important trades any team had made. Instead, Matvichuk metastisized in the playoffs and turned the series against the StLevacalious'Ning around.

The 'Ning were an odd test for the Devils. On the one hand, the proponderance of Lecevelier (who is the best forward in the league at thing point, perhaps the Scottie Pippen of ice hockey) and St. Louis stretched their defensive scheme to the breaking point and nixed their fourth line. On the other hand, the 'Ning's foolish neutral zone play, defensive zone turnovers and inconsistent goaltending gave the Devils gift wrapped scoring chances tied with a bow.

The Pens were no mathc for the Sens; they clearly were not ready for prime time - especially with Crosby playing on one foot.

From the time that Game Four was tied 3-3 the Devils dominated the series; outscoring the 'Ning 7-2 and holding a 120+ minute shutout streak over the ultimate seven periods. They started to play the style that carried them through the winter months: the Devils are odd in that they can withstand the opposition asserting its will on the game for tens of minutes at a time, only to keep the game scoreless and counter attack. In that, they are reminiscent of the 1999 Sabres. The difference: this Devils team is loaded with cup winning closers. This appears to be the same old Ottawa team with a little less fire power after the top line.

Devils in 6.

The east matchups are set, and we're down to just a couple of scenarios in the west. Detroit vs. Dallas and Anaheim vs. San Jose or Detroit vs. San Jose and Anaheim vs. Vancouver...

Calgary was terrible and still went to 6 games plus OT... why? Mikka Kipprusoff was amazing, especially in game 6. We'll see just how much that series took out of Detroit next round. If they draw San Jose, I think they're in big trouble.

Update: Quick calls (subject to change) on the possible matchups:

Detroit vs. Dallas. Detroit in a mid-length series, say 5 or 6. Dallas would be wise to spend game 1 taking the body hard and trying to reap the benefits later in the series. But I just don't think they can score enough.

Anaheim vs. San Jose. Clash of the titans. Anaheim plays damn well at home, and has the D and goaltending to match San Jose. San Jose has guts, and most times guts is enough. I think a seven game series is likely here, with home ice mattering because it matters for the Ducks. Ducks in 7. Whoever wins this is probably your finalist.

Detroit vs. San Jose. This is a bad matchup for Detroit. I know that's what I said about Calgary, but Calgary didn't have enough discipline to even show up. San Jose controls this series. San Jose in 5 or 6.

Anaheim vs. Vancouver. If Luongo could score the Canucks could win this series. Even if they get past low-scoring Dallas, this team doesn't have the guts or the scoring to win this series. Ducks in 4 or 5.

This is just sad.

It's not even that Riseborough is wrong--he has some points--it's just that he sounds pitiful.

Both the Trib and the Sun-Times are reporting that Wirtz might sell the Hawks. This would most likely be the first step in rehabbing this franchise.

I would suggest that the NHL take control of the franchise and auction it off to the best bidder and escrow the money to Wirtz. The NHL should only sell to someone who would guarantee to remove the ancien regime in Chicago and televise home games.

With the Rangers apparently improving, and the Kings in the capable hands of Dean Lombardi, real improvement in Chicago would be great for the league also.

Surprises:

1. Marleau does it again

No Surprise:

1. Marty gets a playoff shutout. We figured he was due.
2. Preds can't handle the Sharks.

Prediction: Sharks in 7; Result: Sharks in 5
Prediction: Sabres in 4; Result: Sabres in 5

Possible Round 2 Matchups (with off the cuff predictions):

San Jose vs. Detroit (SJ in 6), San Jose vs. Dallas (SJ in 5), San Jose vs. Anaheim (Ana in 7)
Buffalo vs. Tampa (Buf in 5), Buffalo vs. NYR (Buf in 6)
Anaheim vs. Calgary (Ana in 4), Anaheim vs. Vancouver (Ana in 6).
NYR vs. Ottawa (Ott in 5), Ottawa vs. New Jersey (Ott in 7)

This is an awesome idea:

The International Ice Hockey Federation is proposing a Champions League format which would pit the top club teams in Europe against each other in a tournament similar to soccer's Champions League.

I'm not sure how many of you out there watch Champions League soccer---but imagine a league filled with Cup champions playing off against each other. The UEFA champions league is the best soccer out there. I believe it's better than the national-team-based World Cup, the European Championship (also national teams), and is almost always better than the Copa Libertadores, the South American equivalent club championship.

It would stand to reason that the European Champions League could be on par with the NHL. And if this idea goes through, it could mimic soccer's world club championship:

Fasel added that the IIHF has had preliminary discussions with the NHL which would see the Champions Hockey League winner take on an NHL team - not necessarily the Stanley Cup champion - for a world trophy in September.

I guess the South American, African, and Asian hockey champions are, uh, not invited? (;

Sportsnet, a consistent supporter of tough justice in the NHL, has a piece objecting to the short suspension of Brad May.

I actually tend to agree. Punching a player in a way that results in his inability to play, which, ultimately ends up being largely responsible for the Wild's ouster, probably deserves more than 3 games. But, again, people are suggesting that the punishment was just long enough to keep May out of the Wild series.

But that shouldn't matter. May should have got whatever anyone else would have gotten based on his demonstrable actions and demonstrable intent. Recklessness can also be a factor, but a careful framework for that should be created so that it just doesn't replace the current entirely subjective punishments.

Surprises:

1. Maybe not to some, but Nick Backstrom played a helluva series. With a few PPG, the Wild might have taken this series. He's UFA too.
2. Turco wins in OT!
3. As good as Ilja Bryzgalov played, Giguere played arguably even better.

No Surprise:

1. Chris Pronger has a dominant performance closing out the series for the Ducks.
2. 0-0 tie in the Vancouver/Dallas series settled in OT.
3. Calgary giving Detroit more than they counted on after the first few games.

Questions for tonight:

1. Do the Islanders have one last gasp in them? Survey says, no.
2. Can the Sharks close out the Preds on the road? Survey says, no.
3. Can the Devils finally contain St. Louis and Lecavalier? Survey says, Brodeur is due for a good game--yes.

Possible round 2 matchups:

Anaheim vs. Calgary, Anaheim vs. San Jose, Anaheim vs. Nashville, Anaheim vs. Vancouver.
NYR vs. Buffalo, NYR vs. Ottawa, NYR vs. Tampa
Ottawa vs. New Jersey, Ottawa vs. NYR, Ottawa vs. NYI

UPDATE:

Prediction: Rangers in 7. Result: Rangers in 4.
Prediction: Ducks in 5. Result: Ducks in 5.
Prediction: Sens in 5. Result: Sens in 5.

I'm off to a decent start.

One of these games is going to be a 1-0 or 2-0 or 2-1 sort of affair.

Whichever team wins that game will win the series.

The Devils made their best of 7 series a best of 3 by winning in OT in Tampa. It's quite possible that they could turn this series around and win it. But nothing the Devils have done in this round, or, really, in the regular season convinces me this is a year for a deep run.

The Minnesota blogosphere is boiling over with righteous indignation over the "sucker punch" by Brad May. I'm not going to defend May, or any of the Ducks. I'm just going to point out that Minnesota is pulling a Toronto here. They are crying about something happening to them when they went out of their way to make sure Boogaard played plenty of minutes, threw plenty of knees, etc.

I'm not sure there's a team out there with clean hands, but if there is, Minnesota isn't it and neither is Toronto. Off the top of my head, the only team I can think of that doesn't usually carry an enforcer is Detroit, but they have Todd Bertuzzi, and used to have Sean Avery.

Hockey scribes know they aren't reporters or journalists--they get their ratings by engaging in metooism and putting into words the feelings of fans. It probably makes rivalries more intense, but it's not reporting.

Don't let all of the talk about fluke goals fool you. The Devils have been thoroughly out played in this series ever since they gave up the game tieing goal in the last minute of the second period of game two.

The Devils have lost playoff games before and come back to win. What is different this time is that they are having their opponents' will, specifically that of Lecavelier and St. Louis, imposed on them. This is the first time I can recall this happening in a playoff series, even in the ones that they lost. You can sense the uncertainty whenever either of those two are on the ice. It transcends through the entirety of both teams: each play the 'Ning makes appears to have a purpose and the Devils are reacting to it.

That said Holmqvist continues to give up juicy rebounds. The best defense here for the Devils is a good offense. If they can get some better cycling shifts in the 'Nings zone they will get to a few more of those rebounds and begin to dictate the play a bit more.

To that end, in my opinion, it is time for some bold experimentation: Move Elias off the EGG line and put him with Madden and Pandolfo; an under-rated aspect of Elias' game is his ability to pass out of the defensive zone. That is something that Pandolfo and Madden are having trouble with and if Elias is on the ice more often, even in a defensive role, it means you get the most of of your best player. Parise should be placed with Gomez and and Gionta; hopefully, he can get them going. Play Dowd with Langenbrunner and Brylin as a second checking line. Sprinkle in Rasmussen, Rupp and Zajac where you can, or bench one of those three and dress Janssens. Have hime try to start a fight with O'Brien. At least that will be the initiation of something.

Game Four is a must win for the Devils. The chances of them winning three straight against the 'Ning are vanishingly small.

Labels: Devils

This injury is a classic example of why the current system does not work. If you watch the video of the hit, nothing Armstrong did was or should be illegal. And nothing Eaves did was wrong either. He was getting pushed from behind by another Pittsburgh player, which seemed to cause him to lunge over so that Armstrong's hit landed on his head instead of his chest.

It was an accident--a confluence of events that unfortunately ended in the injury, but short of disavowing body checking, it is the kind of thing that will happen in a contact sport. Colby Armstrong was not head hunting, and Eaves was not failing to keep his head up.

If you're someone who doesn't skate (I'm not saying this to condescend, just to raise the point) it's hard to understand how effortless the NHL players make it look, and with the added worries of someone pushing you down and trying to skate a circle around the net, you might not always be able to be in a safe position.

Recklessness can and should be punished, because reckless play will tend to cause injuries, but intentional injury should be punished according to a schedule set out before each season and published--it should not vary based on the star quality of the player (either to let him off or to use him as an example).

But accidents will still happen.

POST-SEASON UPDATE: I forgot all about this first round whine that would echo louder and louder in Ottawa as the postseason went on.

Surprises:

1. It feels like Jacques Lemaire doesn't have his team into a playoff mindset.
2. Gary Roberts.
3. Calgary not ready for the playoffs. Sutter should have pulled a Lamoriello.

No Surprise:

1. Marty Turco comes up short in a playoff OT game.
2. Kiprusoff plays out of his mind, but no one else on the team does a thing.
3. Another one goal game between Anaheim and Detroit.
4. Another OT game in the Vancouver/Dallas series.

Only three of the eight series went 2-0, and so far only one has gone 3-0. I'm not sure that that is an uncommon amount, but there's a lot of parity this year.

UPDATE: The story of my life: Bob McKenzie says Playfair should get the ax on a story time-stamped a couple of hours before this one. I always have the idea second (;

In all of my many years of watching hockey, I have rarely seen a 7 seed over-rated. I've seen them under-rated many, many times. There are even stories about the 7-2 upset that get shown every once in a while. But, pundits on TV in the US and Canada, as well as scribes in many cities, were all about the Minnesota Wild.

Larry Brooks picked them to come out of the west.

And now they are on the verge of being swept. In most years, no one would notice--they're the 7 seed after all.

But, they have shown almost zero grit. They haven't played poorly, but they don't act like they're actually playing in the playoffs, or that they couldn't afford to go down 3-0, and they sure seemed very nonplussed about the prospect of going down 2-0.

I like the Wild--I have tons of respect for Jacques Lemaire, whose name really should be on the Cup for each of the three Devils' cups, and there are a number of quality players on the team, too. Backstrom was a great story. When Brian Rolston--one of the Wild's best offensive and best defensive forwards--was traded in late 1999 by the Devils for Claude Lemieux, Devils GM Lou Lamoriello said that he thought Rolston was a great player, but the Devils had too many of that one kind of player. This is the same situation with the Wild now. Demitra, Gaborik, Rolston, et al. are all the same kind of player--and the Wild need to address that to be a serious playoff team.

Everyone thought Niedermayer and Pronger would be the difference in this series. In reality, it's been a surprising combo of Randy Carlisle outcoaching (!) Jacques Lemaire by completely stopping the Wild attack, brilliant goaltending by Ilya Bryzgalov, and the penalty kill unit of the Ducks -- without Todd Marchant.

If the Wild had Rod Brind'Amour, they could win the Cup.

Labels: Ducks, Wild

The Devils won't win the series if the 'Ning score three goals a game.

Triple shifitng St. Louis and Lecavalier has essentially taken away the Devils fourth line. Since he's not going to play anyway the Devils should bench Rupp and dress seven defensemen. Matvichuck should cylce in with Martin and Oduya, the Devils weakest pair this series, to keep all three players fresh.

Assuming Holmqvist remains serviceable for the rest of the series, this one now appears to be a six or seven game dog fight.

Labels: Devils

Surprises:

1. The Islanders!
2. Holmqvist bounces back for Tampa.
3. Only the Ducks and Rangers go up 2-0--everyone else is in a 5 game series.
4. New Jersey has no answer for Tampa's first line, who has 5 goals so far. Not usually NJ's problem.
5. The Rangers--The Rangers!--are playing shut down defense.

No Surprise:

1. Crosby does some clutch scoring.
2. Ottawa doesn't close the deal.

Many people took a look at the two 1 vs. 8 series and noticed how these were perhaps the only two without the parity of the others. It's easy to forget that those upsets happened even in a time with less parity. Think Sharks in 1994 and 2000, or the Oilers in 1997.

Surprises:

1. Minnesota seemed to quit after the SHG against. They turned it on a little again only after they realized the clock was running out.

2. The dirty play of the Predators.

3. Vancouver coming out with less momentum from their 4OT win than the Stars. No way to deny that's a coaching issue. Hats off to Tippett.

4. Marty Turco was brilliant.

5. Minnesota 0 for 9 on the PP. (Though their first goal game seconds after one expired.)

No Surprise:

1. Ilya Bryzgalov was brilliant.

2. Low-scoring between Vancouver and Dallas.

3. No one goes up 2-0 in the Nashville/San Jose series.

Surprises:

1. Offensive explosion from the Devils. Holmqvist in big trouble with three soft goals.
2. Are the refs actually calling the playoffs tighter than the regular season?

No Suprise:

1. Islanders blasted.
2. Calgary is bad on the road.

The teams we picked (I think we made the same picks with variances in number of games) were 7-1 in their first games. Teams who win the first game of a series are largely successful.

Now that the finesse Predators have committed the first verifiably dirty Marchmentesque play of the playoffs (the game misconduct kneeing of Cheechoo) and the neauveau 80s Oilers Pens have dirtied up the garbage time in their shellacking to the Sens can we please stop pretending that there is a direct link between fighting teams, or even fighters, and chippy play?

That goes triple for you NY Times hockey beat writer morons.

Labels: Dirty Play, Fighting

Surprises:

1. Dallas and Vancouver combining for 9 goals.
2. San Jose blowing two 2-goal leads!

No surprise:

1. Marty Turco is outmatched in a playoff OT game.
2. Minnesota only scoring 1 goal.
3. The blasting of the Pittsburgh defense.
4. Two OT games.

Bad news for Dallas: the same Luongo has shown up in the post-season. That's too bad for a Marty Turco-led team.

In mathematical modeling a Monte Carlo scenario is a tool to create book ends around serie' of complicated inter-related equations that have too many variables to be obviously predictable. After many Monte Carlo scenarios are run general trends become evident.

Each NHL playoff series is a like a Monte Carlo scenario. As a gambling man I like to try to pick teams by running outcomes in my head head and seeing what is most likely to occure. Or, that may be a fancy way of saying I use my gut. This gut is not as informed, outside of the Devils, as much this year as last, but here it goes:

Eastern Conference
(1) Buffalo versus (8) New York Islanders
The Isles would have a punchers chance in this one with DiPietro. With Dubliewikz, or howerver you spell it, this could get ugly. Isles will try hard, but they also lack the sort of puck moving defenseman to counter the Sabres' transition game.

At least one of these games will be a blow out.

Sabres in Four.

(2) NJ Devils versus (7) TB Lightning
The 'Ning Dynasty has never replaced Khabibulin's goal keepery or Dave Andreychuck's leadership. Although Lecavelier and St. Louis have attained Super Star status - not just one season wonders - this is exactly the sort of one line team that the Devils have made a habitat of snacking on in the playoffs (see: Boston '95, Florida '00, Boston '03, Rag$ '06). Conversely, the Devils' weak sauce offense has also made a habitat of turning marginal goaltenders into One Series Terrors (See Damian Rhodes, Tom Barrasso, and Kevin Weekes).

So, in scenarios where the Devils cannot get to wHo?lmqvist the 'Nings superior O gaves them a slight edge. In scenarios where the Devils are able to generate enough offensive pressure and get early leads the 'Ning have no chance. TB has said that they will trap and play for one goal games. This puts the pressure solely on the EGG line, especially Scott Gomez the designated trap breaker, to make the difference.

Given the Devils' advantage in goal and on defense and with depth I like Lou to be able to whip the EGGers into shape.

Devils in Five.

(3) Atlanta Thrashers versus (6) New York Rag$
The only thing worse than either one of these annoying squads winning this one will be the gushing by the NY media when the Rag$ finally win their first playoff game in a decade. Oy.

Rag$ better goaltending gives them the series in 7.

(4) Sens versus (5) Pens
Pens were OT spectaculars this season, but sans the 4-on-4 and shootout they were only slightly north of average over the normal 60 minutes. One of the first four games of this series will go into overtime. The winner of that game will almost certainly win the series.

Ray Emery is a vastly under-rated net minder; Fleury and the Pens' third and fourth liners are not quite ready yet. Sens in Six.

Western Conference
(1) Detroit Red Wings (8) Calgary Flames
Another year another vastly over-rated Red Wings team. Since their 96-97 Championship the Wings have only made it out of the second round once (2002) when they bought a hall of fame goaltender, left wing and right wing. Aside that anomalous Mastercard Commerical of a Cup victory this represents a stunning nine years of weakness for a perpetual favorite.

The Wings' steady puck control style is great for beating Columbus and Chicago, but bad for defeating a hungry and hard hitting playoff team. The longer this series goes on the more it favors Calgary. Suddenly, no Detroit forward has the playoff bonafides of Jarome Iginla.

Flames in Seven. Gamblers, jump on this one at +220!

(2) Anaheim Ducks versus (7) Minnesota Wild
Any goaltender that has never been in the playoffs before, no matter how good his regular season, is always a total mystery (see Roman Turek). If Backstrom continues his miserly mastery this could go long. If he is not great I do not see Minnesota having much luck penetrating the Ducks' D when they are playing from behind.

Scott Niedermeyer's game is perfect for the playoffs: he is able to pinch without being caught and has the skills to make an eye-popping game or series breaking individual play. It was his end-to-end rush that broke the back of the Red Wings in 1995.

Nieder is worth one round here. Ducks in Five.

(3) Canucks versus (6) Dallas Stars
I admit to knowing nothing about either team this year. Turco is a playoff choker and Luongo is mature enough to handle his chance... I guess.

Nucks in Five.

(4) Nashville versus (5) San Jose
Can we all please admit that Peter Forsberg has become a glorified perimeter player? Luckily, Peter the Mediocre is but an apendage on a strong and deep Nashville team. The Sharks have fewer household names but they are the more tested team and they never seem to lose easily in the playoffs.

Sharks in Seven.

Best one I've read.

Transcending the fighting issue is this:

We always seem to be talking about the image of hockey, the identity of the league, and how the NHL allows outside forces to define both of them. How can the league develop a distinct image when it's constantly trying to triangulate its message like a Clinton running for office? How does it define an identity when it's in a constant state of identity crisis?

So true. Most people can tell image cultivation when they see it. The reality is, it leaves a sort of rotten feeling in your mouth. If the sport was truly ever going to abandon physicality, it would have done so a long time ago.

The problem is, the NHL knows that would significantly erode the support of its core fan base while only drawing tepid support from fair-weather fans. It can't do it. It also knows that it has to draw fair-weather fans to generate an audience in 30 cities in arenas and on television. Problem is, it isn't patient enough to do that the right way, but, instead wants to do it quick and cheap.

That's where the double-speak comes from. But it's totally myopic.

Wow.


POST-SEASON UPDATE: We're going to have to inaugurate a new award for shitty predictions: The LARRY BROOKS award. The Wild over the Devils??? lol.

So, people are of course talking about the Islanders' clinching of the final playoff spot. Since this involves the elimination of the Leafs--or any action impacting the Leafs--everyone is at fault except the Leafs.

I thought the Devils were in a hell of a situation. Their playoff position is fixed--but the Islanders need two points to get in. Now, if it were the Rangers or Flyers, there's no doubt you stick it to them, but no one credibly thinks there's a strong rivalry between these two teams. If anything, the Devils dislike the Leafs much, much more.

I couldn't believe it that Madden tied it with one second left. I felt bad for the Islanders--one second away from a playoff berth. They got it in the end, of course. But my gosh. If I was Lou, I might have whispered to the shooters to make it look good but miss.

But the criticism was largely for starting Clemmensen, not for some alleged throwing of the game. But you think of your own team first, and giving Marty a day off in a meaningless game makes a lot of sense.

Labels: Devils, islanders, Leafs

McKenzie:

Scott, I couldn't agree with you more. I'm not sure when clean, open ice hits became a reason to start a fight and “stand up for a teammate” but it's a bad trend. I think back to the Detroit-Edmonton game this season when Danny Markov destroyed Jarret Stoll with a clean open-ice hit. If you recall, Ethan Moreau tried to pay back Markov by fighting him late in the game and Moreau threw out his shoulder and missed the rest of the season. Moreau is a valuable player to the Oilers and they will justify what he did, but I thought it was a stupid way to end the season for him. Stupd, because does anyone think Moreau going after Markov to fight him is going to convince Markov not to lay any more open ice hits? The notion is ridiculous. Markov is a hard rock defenceman who will always deliver the big hit if it's there, and bless him for that. In a later game, Steve Staios fought Markov and Markov obliged him. Great. Justice was served. That clean bodycheck on Stoll was avenged. None of it makes any sense.

I am sure there are some occasions on a questionable hit on a star player when a statement needs to be made, but most of the clean hits you are talking about still result in a fight and also some ridiculous argument about how if there were no instigator penalty, this wouldn't be happening. I mean, do you think the instigator penalty or lack thereof would have any impact on Danny Markov doing what he does best. Of course not. The truth is we want more hitting in our game, clean hitting, and if every time a great clean check is leveled, there has to be a fight, well, I don't get it and never will.

Now, again, I'd like to see some stats run, but does fighting reduce clean checks? The only problem I'm having here is how often the same people call clean checks dirty based on the results.

Labels: Violence

(1) Buffalo vs. (8) Islanders
Buffalo has outscored everyone, and didn't stop winning when half of their team was out injured. Lindy Ruff has been through the wars, and this is mostly the same group that was in the third round this year. They aren't going to be stopped by a team that only scraped in on the last day. Buffalo in 4.

(2) New Jersey vs. (7) Tampa Bay
This is Martin Brodeur versus a question mark in net. It's also a high-powered offense versus a pop-gun one. Sure, Tampa has won the cup in 2004, but they have faded much more in those 3 years than New Jersey has in the 4 since its last win. This is just the team this somewhat tenuous NJ team needs to start off a good run. NJ in 4.

(3) Atlanta vs. (6) New York Rangers
These two teams deserve each other. On a coin flip, I with the Rangers in 7.

(4) Ottawa Senators vs. (5) Pittsburgh Penguins
The coronation will have to wait. Ottawa is superior in every aspect, including offensive depth, though Pittsburgh clearly has the best player. Fleury will be exposed, and we'll see that while the Pens had a great regular season, their young group, especially Fleury, isn't quite ready for prime time yet. Sens in 5.

(1) Detroit vs. (8) Calgary

This is a bad matchup for Detroit. Nothing against Calgary, but I would have liked to have seen a 1-8 Detroit/Colorado series. There really aren't many playoff rivalries of that quality anymore. I think Calgary will grind down Detroit's older core. Calgary in 7.

(2) Anaheim vs. (7) Minnesota.

The Ducks have shown some inability to close the deal, yet they have always ended up being just good enough. And that's been because they are just better. If they truly play to their level, they won't meet their equal in the first two rounds. This series will not be reminiscent of the 2003 conference finals--there will be more scoring and there is less at stake--but the result will be similar. Minnesota is a good team, but they aren't that good. Anaheim in 5.

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) Dallas.

This is a matchup of the two lowest scoring western conference playoff teams. Luongo hasn't been playoff tested, but Marty Turco has, and the results have not been good. I like Vancouver in 6.

(4) Nashville vs. (5) San Jose.

This is going to be the marquee matchup of the entire first round. It may have come down to who had more home ice, it's that close. The end result is that someone's trade deadline deal of a high pick or picks and a prospect or prospects is going to be totally meaningless. People only think Nashville is deeper because they know the names: Forsberg, Kariya, Arnott--but it's not the case. The are evenly matched. I've put San Jose into my final four all year, so I'm taking San Jose in 7.

POST-SEASON UPDATE: I think most of this analysis turned out to be correct, except for my document weak spot for Detroit that took two rounds longer than I thought to be vindicated.

Labels: playoffs

Martin Havlat, another Sens alum. He was another beneficiary of a deep team built from the draft. The Hawks consider him the franchise player now, which says a lot about Havlat's deserving the Holik Award, and the farcical state of hockey in the Windy.

Both of Carolina's runs to the finals were gilded with unusual luck.

In 2002 they got the best of a vastly depleted by freakish injuries Devils squad. That series featured Kevin Weekes coming out of nowhere to steal the last two games. They turned the following series against the Habs around by scoring on a PP caused by an unforced error: a taunting penality against the Habs' coach.

In their Cup year they got past the Habs again largely aided by a suspicious stick to the eye of Saku Koivu. That series, and the rest of the playoffs, featured Cam Ward coming out of nowhere to steal several games and the Conn Smythe. Key injuries to the Buffalo defense in the conference finals and Dwayne Roloson in the Finals may have made the ultiamte difference in those seven-games series'.

I believe the Canes' continuous luck was more than random. Rob Brind'amour is one of the most underrated players in the league. It wouldn't surpirse me if he managed to spur Weekes and Ward to play over their heads. If you refuse to die for long enough in hockey the bounces, like a stupid taunting penalty to the opposition's coach, can turn your way.

The Canes are now just the second team in the modern era to miss the playoffs in their Cup defense year. The 1996 Devils were the first (I believe there is an asterisk to that one, in that they had the shortest off season in NHL history becuase the playoffs were delayed due to the 1995 lock out). The Canes lost Reechi, Weight, Cullen and Ward; basically an entire line and a key defenseman. That is a lot and even though Weight and Reechi were rentals they were leaned onheavily in the playoffs. Ultimately, Ward's coach turned back into a pumpkin. He was pedestrian this season. Staal did not up his game to make up for the loss of Weight and Reechi.

The playoff missing 07 Canes and 96 Devils may be best remembered for their connection to novel Cup celebrations. Those Devils were the first team to give every player a day with the Cup. The Hurricanes were the first team to raise their banner twice, so all of their fans could see it. Every team continues the day of the Cup tradition; I do not think any team will want to chance the Curse of the Double Banner Raise.

Labels: Devils Hurricanes

The Holik Trophy for Incompetent Arrogance goes to the good player on a good team from the previous season who chooses to play elsewhere, either for greater money or acclaim or both, this season only to see his new team perform much more poorly than his old squad.

While there are a few transcendent stars in ice hockey the best teams are comprised of several solid players whose talents in various facets of the game make them stronger as a group than individuals. Woe to the career second-liner, third defenseman, or role player who happens to have a team that provides the best platform for his abilities without realizing their contributions to his success.

The trophy is named for Bobby "Greedy Republican" Holik who, in 2002, after nine seasons as a vital part of the NJ Devils and two Stanley Cups choose to Benedict Arnold to the venal New York Rangers and 9.5 million of their Dolan war bucks. Despite the "intangibles" that Bobby Ho Ho supposedly brought to the Golden Parachute All Stars the Rag$ continued to miss the playoffs while the Devils won their third championship in 2003.

The 2006-2007 Holik Trophy for Incompetent Arrogance goes to... Zdeno Chara. After four years as a key player on perpetual contender Ottawa, Daddy Long Legs chose to bolt to perpetual loser Boston. The Broons are once again out of the playoffs while the Senators will be making their seasonal appearance in the spring time tournament. Chara's numbers -- with a few games yet to be played this season -- are about the same this year as last (2006: 16 27 43. 2007: 11 32 43.); however he has gone from a +17 to a -21. This shows how important the team is to his overall efficacy. He was a -27 twice with the Gilligan's Islanders of 1997 to 2001.

2006-2007 Holik Trophy Finalists: Jay McKee (STL - Old Team: BUF) Aaron Ward (Rags/Broons - Old Team: CAR)

Past Winners:

2006: Nikolai Khabibulin (CHI - Old Team: TBL)
2004: Bobby Holik (NYR - Old Team: NJD)
2003: Bobby Holik (NYR - Old Team: NJD)

Labels: Chara, Devils, Holik, Khabibulin, McKenn, rangers, Ward

A poll--not a Freepable net poll, but an actual scientific poll--was conducted in Canada and it showed that 76% of "avid" hockey fans like fighting.

Unfortunately, I think this is probably going to be the last word on the matter. I'd like to see some statistical research on fighting and injury in different eras, but, even though I write this blog, I have enough of a life not to do that.

Labels: Violence

Here's a question: with all the controversy about the three-seed going to the division winner, what about the two conferences? Does Montreal deserve to be in the playoffs more than Colorado? Maybe. Any arguments?

As much as I'm a fan of Andy Murray's fruitless, early-draft-pick-wasting surge in St. Louis, and as much as I think Alain Vigneault deserves recognition for his great coaching, I have to say, Ron Wilson's move in last night's game was something people will be talking about for a while.

Wilson knew Selanne used illegal sticks, and he was probably holding that bit of information close to his vest for a time when it might count for something. It did last night. Now, the Ducks still only need two more points, and San Jose has to be perfect the rest of the way against Calgary who wants to clinch, and Vancouver, but that was the critical moment.

Wilson made the 1997 Ducks an elite team when they had an average goalie and one scoring line. He took the Washington Capitals to the finals the next year, and he's made the Sharks a quality team during his time there. Maybe he deserves some recognition.

Labels: Ron Wilson

What would the NHL playoff seeds look like if you adjusted for division strength? (Using today's top 8 teams and their point figures, adjusting division average points versus league average.)

1. DET - 108
2. VAN - 107
3. ANA - 105
4. NAS - 104
5. MIN - 103
6. SJ - 101/49
7. DAL - 101
8. CGY - 99

1. BUF - 113
2. NJ - 102
3. ATL - 88
4. OTT - 107
5. PIT - 100
6. MTL - 93
7. NYR - 91
8. TB - 88

Order of division strength by average points:

1. Northeast 93.4
2. Northwest 91.8
3. Pacific 87.8
4. Central 87.4
4. Atlantic 87.4
6. Southeast 84.4

Having lived around LA, Chicago, and New York, I'd like to make some more insights about those teams and how they connect to the fate of the league.

I've been harping on people for making arguments absent data lately, so I will have to qualify this as speculation, and, if someone can prove me wrong, I will retract it. Anyway, here goes...

To a large extent, these three cities are trend makers. Especially LA, the entertainment capital. NY does its fair share of culture creation, and so does Chicago, if to a lesser extent. Now, New Yorkers may have a different kind of disdain for New Jersey than Angelinos do for Orange County (might be slightly more like Long Island in that regard), but no matter what you call the team (ahem, Arte Moreno) Angelinos and New Yorkers are not going to root for the Ducks or Devils, even though they are quality teams and close by.

So, in some sense, for the last roughly 15 years, neither city has had a team generating any buzz in its main trendsetting space. Neither has Chicago.

The Rangers won a Cup in 1994, the Kings were in the finals the year before, 1993, and the Hawks the year before that, 1992. The Kings have made it to the second round once since then. The Rangers were in the Conference final in 1997, and were swept in 2006, their only other playoff year. The Hawks have made the playoffs only once since 1998.

These teams also lost their star players associated with their glory years. The Kings lost Gretzky; the Rangers, Messier; the Hawks, Roenick and Chelios.

Different kinds of incompetent management have ruined all three teams. In Chicago, home games aren't allowed on TV by Bill Wirtz, the owner. A series of bad owners has plagued the Kings, who finally have decent management in Dean Lombardi. In New York, the team has made a series of terrible high priced free agent acquisitions in its vain attempts to prevent rebuilding. Only now is it building a small core of competent from-the-farm players.

In this same timespan, the NHL has suffered dramatically in loss of popularity. I can't remember the last time I saw a hockey reference in a regular movie or TV show--and they used to be somewhat regular.

I'm not saying this is the only thing ailing the league, but fixing it would go a long way to improving the fate of the game in the US (I still believe that keeping the game in Canada in shape is the #1 priority, though). All three of these places (yes, even LA) have proven capable of being excellent hockey markets.

It can be done, but a lot of heads will need to roll in Chicago and New York, and Lombardi will have to repeat his prior successes in LA.

POST-SEASON UPDATE: The Rangers drew some interest in their run to the second round, but I'm not sure it added up to much. California's interest in hockey can't be hurt by the Ducks winning the Cup, even if it only amps up LA fans to Napoleon syndrome interest.

Labels: blackhawks, Kings, rangers

For a Flyers guy, this is probably the most intelligent thing written about the Julien matter. In fact, this is probably the best piece bar none.

I hope they don't cancel Eklund's season tickets in Philly for having written that. Even though this guy obviously gets spun on trade rumors, he must be talking to at least some real insiders, because this dovetails with everything I know.

I think this is mostly right:

Did Marty Brodeur and the leaders on this team apparently want this change? Yes they did. But why did they want the change? Usually you always hear about coaches getting fired by players because they are too tough on them and have lost the room. A source today told me that, "Perhaps Claude was too easy and lost the room."

The Ranger-fellating New York media wants you to believe this was a player-led coup driven by a loss of respect for Julien because he was getting reversed by Lamoriello---anything to paint the Devils and Lamoriello as evil. Of course, that's hogwash, and they are just covering for their terrible bunch of bumbling idiots who have run the country's most important franchise into the ground over the last 13 years. That includes everyone from the Cablevision board down to the AHL players. It's no mistake that the fortunes of the NHL have declined when the league's three most important U.S. markets can't field respectable teams. (NY metro, Chicago, and LA metro.)

You can continue to believe whatever you want about the Devils, but, with the possible exception of the Red Wings (whom I hate as a fan, but dearly respect), no franchise has a more proven track record of recent success and dedication to excellence. The Julien firing is therefore meaningless.

Labels: Devils, media, rangers

Effective tomorrow, just in time to ruin the playoffs, Charter Cable is canceling the Versus network.

What strikes me as especially odd about this is that they carry the Center Ice package. So, I and everyone else paid the $150 for Center Ice and now we won't be getting the playoffs.

So, I'll have the dish again by the weekend.

Unless they win the Stanley Cup this year, Lamoriello will have seriously tarnished the image he deservedly built in the early '90s.

Says Devil beat writer Mark Everson. This statement reveals a lot about the writer. He's saying that because he's already drawn that conclusion, and by setting the bar that high is basically saying this tarnishes Lou's reputation. Why this firing and not any of the others does, he does not (and probably cannot) say.

If anything tarnishes his reputation, it will be his salary cap bungles of last year, which caused the Devils to miss one, probably two, solid opportunities at a Cup run during Brodeur's prime. Firing Claude Julien, a cog in the machine coach, will not.

For the NY Post, the Devils are like the Clintons. Only praised at moments of maximum victory, otherwise hounded over minutia.

UPDATE 6/9/07: Lou's reputation is fine, and this incident was just a blip on the radar. The Devils lost to the Stanley Cup Finalists again, and even though Lou made some coaching miscues, it wasn't on him.

Labels: Devils, NY Post

I admit that I never saw this one coming.

Since "Bad Copy" Lou is only explaining this move via the typical inchoate platitudes -- "The decision was made because of where we were and the frame of mind and the way were doing things going into the playoffs. I did not feel it was the right direction we should be in at this time" -- the prognosticators, like ESPN's resident dunce Scott Burnside, are left with their own pathetic Kremlinology and bizarre metaphor mixing.

Here is my take as someone that has followed the team closely for ten years:

Lou says that the Devils are built like a college team with players vaguely grouped into Seniors, Juniors, Sophomores, and Freshmen. The reigning Seniors - Brodeur, Brylin and Dowd - have played very well this year. The Freshmen: Zajac, Parise (Freshman does not equal rookie), Greene, Oduya, Janssens, and other call ups have been stellar. The Sophomores -- Martin, Luckowich, Rupp, Rasmussen -- have generally been strong.

It is the Juniors, the players who should be starting to play more of a leadership role, that have been a mixed bag. Madden, Pandolfo and Rafalski have all had one of their best seasons. The physical element of White's game has ebbed, but he no longer takes foolish penalties and seems capable of revving it up again. It is Gomez and Elias, and to a degree Gionta and Langenbruuner, who have been inconsistent. These players have dealt with injuries. Still... Gomez has lost last year's goal scorers touch. Elias and Gionta no longer create sustained pressure. They perfrom strong rushes but cannot seem to get the puck back after their initial chance is stopped. Langenbrunner has anchored the quietly strong second line, but still goes a dozen games between goals.

There was a time (2003) when the Devils could win with Gomez and Elias only being good and Gionta being a bit player (Langenbrunner collected a streaky 11 goals that year). These players have seemed sanguine about how they will finish the season and seem to believe that they will turn it on in the playoffs. Parise has been the Devils' best and most consistent offensive player this season. Operating on the assumption that a Freshman will continue his breakout season through the playoffs is a dangerous gamble. The Julien firing is a direct challenge to the EGGers to assume the leadership of the team.

Overall, it's a good move. If these players cannot respond to this challenge, as Petr Sykora did not in the '02 playoffs, then it may be time to reconsider their position in the franchise. It is foolish to have these resources at your disposal without seeing how they respond to the difficult task of raising both their games and the perfromance of the under classmen.

Labels: Burnside, Devils, Elias, Gomez, Julien, Lou

Contrary to the post below, Polemic's coaching deadpool did in fact pick Julien to be among the next coaches fired.

Labels: Coaching Deadpool, Devils, Julien

I'm not surprised to see this at all. I am pretty sure I didn't put Julien in my Coaching Deadpool's last edition (I'll double check that), but there is something wrong with this year's Devils, something that it's hard to put a finger on.

Lou did a decent job coaching, and it's pretty much his team to begin with. And let's not forget that this ploy worked in 2000. (Admittedly with a much stronger team.)

Update: Julien was in the last Coaching Deadpool.

Update 2: So what do I think of this? Obviously, I've had my suspicions that this was coming, and I've had a general feeling that there was something off about this edition, as I said above. If this was it, then great, they're just in time. Honestly, it's been my opinion that the Devils do better on the road in the playoffs (Brodeur's statement about game 7s in the finals, which they often avoid by winning in less than 7.) Dunno. We'll see.

Labels: Devils, Julien