Tuesday, April 10, 2007
NHL First Round Monte Carlo Scenarios
In mathematical modeling a Monte Carlo scenario is a tool to create book ends around serie' of complicated inter-related equations that have too many variables to be obviously predictable. After many Monte Carlo scenarios are run general trends become evident.
Each NHL playoff series is a like a Monte Carlo scenario. As a gambling man I like to try to pick teams by running outcomes in my head head and seeing what is most likely to occure. Or, that may be a fancy way of saying I use my gut. This gut is not as informed, outside of the Devils, as much this year as last, but here it goes:
Eastern Conference
(1) Buffalo versus (8) New York Islanders
The Isles would have a punchers chance in this one with DiPietro. With Dubliewikz, or howerver you spell it, this could get ugly. Isles will try hard, but they also lack the sort of puck moving defenseman to counter the Sabres' transition game.
At least one of these games will be a blow out.
Sabres in Four.
(2) NJ Devils versus (7) TB Lightning
The 'Ning Dynasty has never replaced Khabibulin's goal keepery or Dave Andreychuck's leadership. Although Lecavelier and St. Louis have attained Super Star status - not just one season wonders - this is exactly the sort of one line team that the Devils have made a habitat of snacking on in the playoffs (see: Boston '95, Florida '00, Boston '03, Rag$ '06). Conversely, the Devils' weak sauce offense has also made a habitat of turning marginal goaltenders into One Series Terrors (See Damian Rhodes, Tom Barrasso, and Kevin Weekes).
So, in scenarios where the Devils cannot get to wHo?lmqvist the 'Nings superior O gaves them a slight edge. In scenarios where the Devils are able to generate enough offensive pressure and get early leads the 'Ning have no chance. TB has said that they will trap and play for one goal games. This puts the pressure solely on the EGG line, especially Scott Gomez the designated trap breaker, to make the difference.
Given the Devils' advantage in goal and on defense and with depth I like Lou to be able to whip the EGGers into shape.
Devils in Five.
(3) Atlanta Thrashers versus (6) New York Rag$
The only thing worse than either one of these annoying squads winning this one will be the gushing by the NY media when the Rag$ finally win their first playoff game in a decade. Oy.
Rag$ better goaltending gives them the series in 7.
(4) Sens versus (5) Pens
Pens were OT spectaculars this season, but sans the 4-on-4 and shootout they were only slightly north of average over the normal 60 minutes. One of the first four games of this series will go into overtime. The winner of that game will almost certainly win the series.
Ray Emery is a vastly under-rated net minder; Fleury and the Pens' third and fourth liners are not quite ready yet. Sens in Six.
Western Conference
(1) Detroit Red Wings (8) Calgary Flames
Another year another vastly over-rated Red Wings team. Since their 96-97 Championship the Wings have only made it out of the second round once (2002) when they bought a hall of fame goaltender, left wing and right wing. Aside that anomalous Mastercard Commerical of a Cup victory this represents a stunning nine years of weakness for a perpetual favorite.
The Wings' steady puck control style is great for beating Columbus and Chicago, but bad for defeating a hungry and hard hitting playoff team. The longer this series goes on the more it favors Calgary. Suddenly, no Detroit forward has the playoff bonafides of Jarome Iginla.
Flames in Seven. Gamblers, jump on this one at +220!
(2) Anaheim Ducks versus (7) Minnesota Wild
Any goaltender that has never been in the playoffs before, no matter how good his regular season, is always a total mystery (see Roman Turek). If Backstrom continues his miserly mastery this could go long. If he is not great I do not see Minnesota having much luck penetrating the Ducks' D when they are playing from behind.
Scott Niedermeyer's game is perfect for the playoffs: he is able to pinch without being caught and has the skills to make an eye-popping game or series breaking individual play. It was his end-to-end rush that broke the back of the Red Wings in 1995.
Nieder is worth one round here. Ducks in Five.
(3) Canucks versus (6) Dallas Stars
I admit to knowing nothing about either team this year. Turco is a playoff choker and Luongo is mature enough to handle his chance... I guess.
Nucks in Five.
(4) Nashville versus (5) San Jose
Can we all please admit that Peter Forsberg has become a glorified perimeter player? Luckily, Peter the Mediocre is but an apendage on a strong and deep Nashville team. The Sharks have fewer household names but they are the more tested team and they never seem to lose easily in the playoffs.
Sharks in Seven.
Each NHL playoff series is a like a Monte Carlo scenario. As a gambling man I like to try to pick teams by running outcomes in my head head and seeing what is most likely to occure. Or, that may be a fancy way of saying I use my gut. This gut is not as informed, outside of the Devils, as much this year as last, but here it goes:
Eastern Conference
(1) Buffalo versus (8) New York Islanders
The Isles would have a punchers chance in this one with DiPietro. With Dubliewikz, or howerver you spell it, this could get ugly. Isles will try hard, but they also lack the sort of puck moving defenseman to counter the Sabres' transition game.
At least one of these games will be a blow out.
Sabres in Four.
(2) NJ Devils versus (7) TB Lightning
The 'Ning Dynasty has never replaced Khabibulin's goal keepery or Dave Andreychuck's leadership. Although Lecavelier and St. Louis have attained Super Star status - not just one season wonders - this is exactly the sort of one line team that the Devils have made a habitat of snacking on in the playoffs (see: Boston '95, Florida '00, Boston '03, Rag$ '06). Conversely, the Devils' weak sauce offense has also made a habitat of turning marginal goaltenders into One Series Terrors (See Damian Rhodes, Tom Barrasso, and Kevin Weekes).
So, in scenarios where the Devils cannot get to wHo?lmqvist the 'Nings superior O gaves them a slight edge. In scenarios where the Devils are able to generate enough offensive pressure and get early leads the 'Ning have no chance. TB has said that they will trap and play for one goal games. This puts the pressure solely on the EGG line, especially Scott Gomez the designated trap breaker, to make the difference.
Given the Devils' advantage in goal and on defense and with depth I like Lou to be able to whip the EGGers into shape.
Devils in Five.
(3) Atlanta Thrashers versus (6) New York Rag$
The only thing worse than either one of these annoying squads winning this one will be the gushing by the NY media when the Rag$ finally win their first playoff game in a decade. Oy.
Rag$ better goaltending gives them the series in 7.
(4) Sens versus (5) Pens
Pens were OT spectaculars this season, but sans the 4-on-4 and shootout they were only slightly north of average over the normal 60 minutes. One of the first four games of this series will go into overtime. The winner of that game will almost certainly win the series.
Ray Emery is a vastly under-rated net minder; Fleury and the Pens' third and fourth liners are not quite ready yet. Sens in Six.
Western Conference
(1) Detroit Red Wings (8) Calgary Flames
Another year another vastly over-rated Red Wings team. Since their 96-97 Championship the Wings have only made it out of the second round once (2002) when they bought a hall of fame goaltender, left wing and right wing. Aside that anomalous Mastercard Commerical of a Cup victory this represents a stunning nine years of weakness for a perpetual favorite.
The Wings' steady puck control style is great for beating Columbus and Chicago, but bad for defeating a hungry and hard hitting playoff team. The longer this series goes on the more it favors Calgary. Suddenly, no Detroit forward has the playoff bonafides of Jarome Iginla.
Flames in Seven. Gamblers, jump on this one at +220!
(2) Anaheim Ducks versus (7) Minnesota Wild
Any goaltender that has never been in the playoffs before, no matter how good his regular season, is always a total mystery (see Roman Turek). If Backstrom continues his miserly mastery this could go long. If he is not great I do not see Minnesota having much luck penetrating the Ducks' D when they are playing from behind.
Scott Niedermeyer's game is perfect for the playoffs: he is able to pinch without being caught and has the skills to make an eye-popping game or series breaking individual play. It was his end-to-end rush that broke the back of the Red Wings in 1995.
Nieder is worth one round here. Ducks in Five.
(3) Canucks versus (6) Dallas Stars
I admit to knowing nothing about either team this year. Turco is a playoff choker and Luongo is mature enough to handle his chance... I guess.
Nucks in Five.
(4) Nashville versus (5) San Jose
Can we all please admit that Peter Forsberg has become a glorified perimeter player? Luckily, Peter the Mediocre is but an apendage on a strong and deep Nashville team. The Sharks have fewer household names but they are the more tested team and they never seem to lose easily in the playoffs.
Sharks in Seven.
// posted by Grinder McCarver @ 10:53 PM 
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