Wednesday, April 27, 2011

East: Round 1 Wrap, Round 2 Predictions

Washington started to live up to expectations and crushed the mediocre Rangers, who overperformed their skill level.

Philadelphia took advantage of the less-than-stellar appearances that Ryan Miller made, and Buffalo couldn't get it done when he wasn't there to steal the game.

Pittsburgh almost made it. Seems like they would have won with Crosby and/or Malkin.

Boston and Montreal was the best series in the East in the first round and in the top 3 overall.

(1) Washington vs. (5) Tampa Bay
Washington in 5
Tampa Bay relied on another round of Roloson acrobatics to beat the seriously depleted Pittsburgh. Washington is much better.

(2) Philadelphia vs. (3) Boston
Philadelphia in 7
If the Flyers have settled on Boucher and he's solid, they should be able to eek this one out. They've shown some grit this year.

...what this means... (1) Washington vs. (2) Philadelphia with Washington losing to Vancouver in the finals.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

West: Round 1 Wrap, Round 2 Predictions

Vancouver almost choked after the champs decided that they weren't going out like that. They won't be able to spot Nashville 3 games like that as long as Nashville keeps playing the way they have.

The Coyotes collapsed along with Bryzgalov and under the strain of the uncertainty of where the franchise would be located. Maybe it was a lot more real than last year when they used those anxieties as their fuel.

The Ducks couldn't keep Nashville's tenacious forwards out of their zone and had mediocre goal tending. Rinne didn't show he can steal a series in this one and Nashville's PK will have to be better against the Sedins.

The Sharks look shaky. The Kings were without their best forward and came close to pulling off the upset, but just couldn't finish it in OT. They were close.

Give that, here are my picks for round 2 out west:

(1) Vancouver vs. (5) Nashville
Vancouver in 6
Rinne will have to steal the series and he showed no indication in the first round he could do that. The Canucks are as deep at forward as the Ducks were and deeper everywhere else.

(2) San Jose vs. (3) Detroit
Detroit in 7
The Wings aren't going to give San Jose three wins in OT and aren't going to give up a 4 goal lead. San Jose's shaky goaltending will get even more pressured by Detroit and San Jose has not shown the guts to beat Detroit or any other elite team in the playoffs. Detroit might take a game or two to get back into game shape.

...Resulting in (1) Vancouver vs. (3) Detroit with Vancouver winning in 7 and bringing the Cup back to the West Coast after a 4 year absence and back to Canada after an 18 year absence.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Round 1: Western Conference

(1) Vancouver versus (8) Chicago/Dallas
Vancouver in 5
I'm not going to bother waiting to see who wins the 8 seed. Neither of them are going to beat the Canucks.

(2) San Jose versus (7) Los Angeles
San Jose in 6
Fans have waited for 20 years for this series. When the Sharks came into being, they were a bottom-tier team, while the Kings enjoyed their run with Wayne Gretzky in his prime. After the Kings went into their dark ages, the Sharks emerged, slowly but surely, as a competitive team every year. Neither team has won a Stanley Cup, and only the Kings have been to the finals, just once. I am hopeful that this is the most exciting series to watch.

The Sharks have talent at every position but they have problems in the playoffs. I think a lot of that had to do with their former goaltender. He had decent stats, but he never really stole a series. But I could be wrong. There could be more than one problem here. Still, I think they have the experience, the hunger, and the talent to outshine the Kings, their anemic power play, and their depleted forwards.

Shark Weak on NHL won't be until later on.

(3) Detroit versus (6) Phoenix
Phoenix in 7
The playoffs are still about goaltending first. I'm gonna make this my "against the grain" pick because of Bryzgalov on the one hand and Howard on the other. There's not much else that needs to be said.

(4) Anaheim versus (5) Nashville
Anaheim in 6
Anaheim has something to talk about with their goaltending situation, but they have two backups playing fantastic and one starter with a great playoff record with a few days to get back to 100%. Still, the Ducks are a nasty team that can score with an underrated D corps. Nashville will have to figure out how to stop two lines. Rinne will have to steal the series for them, because they can't score and their PP is terrible.

What this means:
Round 2: VAN vs. PHX, SJ vs. ANA, WAS vs. TAM, PHI vs. BOS.

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Eastern Conference Round 1

Prediction time!

Washington vs. New York Rangers
Washington in 5.
New York is actually a better offensive team than the Capitals, and have a better overall plus/minus. But New York doesn't have the scoring depth to hang in there. Washington will have to get quality 'tending in order to go deep, but I think they've got this one.

Philadelphia vs. Buffalo
Philadelphia in 4
Ryan Miller versus the Flyers. Nuff said.

Boston vs. Montreal
Boston in 7
This is probably going to be a bit bloody, but Boston has more of everything.

Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay
Tampa in 6
Pittsburgh has a good core group leftover from their Cup run, but they aren't the same team and injuries have depleted them. Tampa has some experience as well and also some youthful energy, which seems to be the post-lockout mix for success.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Do I Recant?

No.

First of all, Lamoriello imposes very tough standards of judgment on everyone including himself. This is one of the things I admire about him. This is why I think it's more than fair to pass this kind of judgment on the man himself.

The Devils are at a crossroads this season, one they haven't really faced in 20 years. They are out of the playoffs. They have no long term solution for a coach. Marty Brodeur is no longer capable of playing at a high level for 70 games and the playoffs, but he still has it. Should he be re-signed? There's no long term solution there. Who knows what it will take to get Zach Parise under contract. A lot of the team's bad contracts still have another year on them.

And while the season ended on a great run, that run was unproductive. Sure, Ilya Kovalchuk saved some face for everyone by getting to 30 goals, a spectacular proportion of which were game winning. But now the team is faced with building from the forward ranks back, something that completely breaks their formula. And they won't even have a lottery pick to deal with it (though all of the goalies and defensemen except one are likely to still be available at #7). But they didn't even make the playoffs. I'm not sure that would have meant anything for the long-term health of the organization, but it might have made things look a little better. But this is an organization where only winning a Stanley Cup is a successful season. Lou's standards again.

There are many NHL teams in worse shape than the Devils. There are many that always seem to have potential and never do anything about it. But most of those teams and their fans are resigned to it (though the world changed for Hawk fans fast, didn't it?).

So, no. I don't take it back. Lou should either step aside, or focus more on being the team's CEO and promote someone else to the GM slot. But first he needs to find a long-term coach and a goalie.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Resign, Lou.

The Devils' reporter Tom Gulliti tweeted tonight that a year ago, the Devils were in first place and tonight they are in last place. And while that tells a tale all on its own, the real story of the Devils decline from perennial Cup contenders stems from the abject failure of the team's management to adapt to the salary cap era.

Remember, the coaching carousel at one point included Lou himself after Larry Robinson's second stint (or was it his third?) behind the bench failed in yet another nervous breakdown. This was the first season after the lockout when the Devils also tried to bring back Alexander Mogilny and Vladimir Malakhov, both of whom were epic failures costing the Devils almost $10m in cap space until the Devils wiggled out.

Over four years ago, I started raising this red flag. At that time, there was an abject failure not only to transition to the cap era, but a failure to prepare by signing the right players to replace departing hall of fame defensemen Niedermayer and Stevens.

At some point, the build from the goal forward philosophy seemed to be deemed fulfilled simply by having Martin Brodeur in net. Now, the failure to replace the blue line corps is being compounded by the failure to give Martin Brodeur rest, and he is now burning out and may be more or less done. There is no replacement in sight. In other words, not only is the d-corps being filled with anonymous AHL jobbers, the net soon will be too.

But that's ok, because this philosophy has apparently been abandoned. Perhaps it should be. Perhaps the post-lockout NHL is simply so turned off by skill at any position other than forward that adapting to it is a must. But turning over the keys of the franchise to Ilya Kovalchuk has cost this team perhaps the most valuable of all of the seasons for which he is under contract: the last useful season of Martin Brodeur's career. This should have been their year.

It was Lou that allowed Scott Niedermayer to leave, even if it was through his failure to acquire his brother, who, res ipsa loquitur, was good enough for the team because he played here later. It was Lou that could never replace Pat Burns, probably because most coaches are scared to death to play for him. It was Lou that resigned Malakhov and Mogilny and signed McGillis. It was Lou that brought Bobby Holik of all people back. It was Lou that allowed Martin Brodeur to continue to play 70+ games per season even after it became clear this was bad. It was Lou that went all in on Ilya Kovalchuk. It was Lou that groomed John MacLean as one of the worst coaches in NHL history.

Is that a harsh standard of judgment? Maybe, but it's Lou's own. In fact, as is well documented on this site, I know that the media and the league applies ridiculous standards and double standards to the Devils. Is it because of Lou? In part, perhaps. But it is what it is. It can't be gotten around through a dominant team anymore.

It's time for Vanderbeek to send Lou off with the honor and dignity he deserves as the best general manager of the 20 year period from 1985-2005 and the architect of one of the NHL's most durable dynasties.

But it's time for a new direction.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Occam's Razor

People seem to be reacting to the Ducks win over the Sharks as the Ducks stealing a game they didn't deserve to win. I think that's true simply based on the gameplay. But to the extent that this has built in bias that the Sharks are a good team and the Ducks are a bad team, it's false.

The Ducks are a very average team. But, no matter what we want to think, the Sharks are a bad team. They deserve their place in the standings.

In the salary cap era, you don't get 5 years to win a Cup with your team. You get a very, very short window. They blew it.

Friday, November 5, 2010

2011

The NHL has more or less completed the transition into the look and feel of a salary-capped league. That is, not only are there not dynasties in the sense of multiple, repeat championships, there is also rapid turnover in who the elite teams are, or even who the playoff teams are.

This means anyone can win each year. Chicago had a good "warm up" playoff run in 2009, but it might have been tough to pick them to win it all even still.

Player mobility is up even more. The importance of veteran defenseman is greatly reduced. This may not be by design, because the market for defensemen was greatly inflated. But the elimination of goaltending as a dynasty- or even consistency-making element of a team, worthy of being a franchise player, is also complete. And it is by design. Brodeur will probably be the last of his kind for a while.

This is all to say that I think that the value of a prediction under these circumstances is even sillier than it used to be. Sure, someone will name the proper team. But the meaningful information that that guess could have been made on is so greatly reduced as to suggest it was dumb luck, and nothing else.

Still, there are some things you can see after 10 games or so about a team. Some just aren't cohesive or mentally able to win. Those teams probably won't be Cup contenders.

So, on the basis of even less meaningful information than before, I present my predictions for 2011.

Stanley Cup: Los Angeles Kings
Eastern Conference Champion: Washington Capitals

Final Four: LAK, WAS, STL, MTL

Playoff Teams: LAK, DET, VAN, STL, DAL, CHI, ANA, COLO; PHI, WAS, MTL, PIT, NYR, BOS, OTT, TOR

Monday, July 19, 2010

Well...

...based on the hockey Internets, it seems that now that the Devils have signed a player to a 17-year cap it is now a crime against God and humanity. Just like the trap and goalies handling the puck.

Walkback? No way.

So here's my chance to walk everything back and say how great Kovalchuk is and blah blah.

Well, let's just say I'm from Missouri. (OK, I'm not, but my mom is.)

I'll lighten up on Kovy when he does something in the playoffs. And if the current rumor is true, that it is a 17 year $100m contract, then I'm not only shocked that Lou would do it, but I think it's a terrible mistake. [$102m over 17. Wow.]

I don't think the Devils are this one piece away from the Cup, obviously. I don't know if Kovalchuk has the  chops to replace Martin Brodeur as the franchise player.

But this is all premature. And Zach Parise better call up his real estate agent.

This might go a long way to changing the Devils image, which is basically based on stuff from a long time ago that everyone else copy-catted anyway, to a scoring team. But whatever.

I guess the up side is that it's only a $5.88 $6m per year cap hit, and he's definitely worth that now.

Don't get me wrong: Kovalchuk is a great player. But I have always admired the Devils for their formula of success: draft, make strategic, long-term trades, and build from the goal forward. Today, they just completely reversed that.

Lou hasn't been the best GM in the league since the cap came into place. He's been among the better ones, but he has made some major mistakes, including the returns of Malakhov and Mogilny. Lou was praised for being able to dump those salaries, but in the mean time that money wasn't available for players that would actually help them win. The return of Bobby Holik and Brian Rolston (especially the latter) have been abortions.

The window is closing on Martin Brodeur's career. I personally want to see him win another Cup so that the comparisons to Roy will cease. I hope that this move will help in that regard.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

But he's better than Parise.

While I admit to being skeptical of Lou Lamoriello having offered the kind of amounts being rumored (and if he did, I think he's off his rocker), this kind of pants-on-fire reporting from Tom Gulitti is silly. It's not really news that a signing of that magnitude would impact the Devils' ability to resign anyone. Duh.

But, at the end of the day, Kovalchuk is better than Parise. So, tough titties to him.

Look, if someone wants to take a run at an offer sheet to Parise, it's looking like the Devils might be able to use the picks. But no-trade-clauses haven't had much impact in keeping players from moving. Just depends on where. 

Monday, July 5, 2010

Kovalchuk

Ilya Kovalchuk is probably one of the top three goal scorers in the NHL right now. He is an exciting player. He will put people in seats, and I don't see him scoring less than 30 goals a season any time soon.

But take a look at the last several Cup winners. Solid goaltending is still required, but it isn't the sine qua non anymore. You need defensemen still, of course. But a pack of young forwards has been the key to every recent winner. Think Kane and Toews, Crosby and Malkin, Datsyuk and Zetterberg, Getzlaf and Perry. Guys like Selanne and Hossa only played supporting roles.

Every team purportedly in the Kovalchuk bidding already has this going and needs a top six forward, not a top one forward, not at the asking prices. The role Kovalchuk would play on a potentially winning team doesn't justify the bank- and cap-breaking salary demands he's making.

The Islanders are probably the best fit, but the NY media says they never made the big offer people were saying. The Devils would have to trade a player who has a no trade clause, probably for nothing in return. I can't see how the Flyers arrange the cap room and fill out their roster. The Kings are building something special and fit the template of the young dynamic teams that are winning these days, but they can't break their cap for Kovy without risking losing important elements of their young core. Dean Lombardi is one of the smartest GMs in hockey and he showed it by backing off here.

If I was a GM and Kovalchuk really wanted to play on my team, I'd offer him a 2 year $10m deal to give him the chance to show what he's made of in the playoffs. His two appearances so far haven't impressed.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Round 2 East [oopse]

Well, I said Pens in 6 and Flyers in 6 on Facebook before this started. Heh.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Round 2 West

Sharks/Wings

The last time the Sharks faced the Wings in the playoffs, in 2007, they were up in game 4 and about to take a 3-1 series lead. They didn't and they lost the series. So, as for many teams, beating the Wings is the test of whether or not a team will have playoff success. Indeed, more so that ever this year. I think the odds are good that the Sharks will get to the finals if they can win here. Big "if." But it's their series to win or lose. The Wings aren't good enough to beat them if they don't psyche themselves out. Sharks in 7.

Hawks/Canucks

Interesting rematch. Van beat a good LA team, but the Hawks didn't exactly live up to expectations against the Preds. The Hawks are the kind of team that will get stopped butt cold by a hot goalie. Luongo made some key saves but in he second round, especially late, but you cant have an off night like Luongo is prone to. Hawks in 7.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Devils

I didn't watch enough games this year to make a qualified thorough post-mortem, but I'll say this much:

The pundits are almost always wrong about the Devils and what they need to do, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Marty needs to quit playing so many regular season games. Period.

And I'll just add that the d-corps is nothing compared to the teams that won cups. Back in 2000, GM Lamoriello said that he traded to get Claude Lemieux back because the Devils had too many of the same kind of player. That is true again now.

The Devils are probably as deep in forward scoring now as they've ever been, except maybe 2000-01, but as thin on D as they have been since 1991. Lou says he is trying to sign Ilya Kovalchuk. Fine, but how about getting a defenseman of that caliber?

Monday, April 19, 2010

Q.E.D.

All you need to see to be convinced that the "new rules" or "post-lockout rules" in hockey are complete, utter bullshit is the first 20 seconds on this clip. This is clearly "interference" by Recchi—Kennedy isn't within 5 feet of the puck and hasn't touched it yet—but it's guts and it's an awesome play. Assuming you're not a Sabres fan, would you rather plays like this are made, or called dead by a ref's whistle? If you answer is the latter, you must reject the new rules, reject the spin of calling the decade prior to the lockout the "dead puck era" and rename it the "guts counted" era.



Hell, the Associated Press seemed to think it was the lead story of the game.

P.S. You could also call it "when everything other than finessy scoring counted." Goaltending counted more. Everything mattered. But, hey, why care about hardcore fans when you can sell Ovechkin and Crosby pinups to fair-weather fans in Kentucky.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Shark Weak Continues on NHL

Sharks apologists can continue to make excuses. The goal was a fluke. Heatley was out. Fine—all of that is true. But it's the kind of things that teams on a trajectory for a Cup overcome, especially against first round opponents that are significantly weaker. Or appeared that way on paper.


In the end, the fact that the Sharks couldn't score one goal on 51 shots speaks just as loudly as the Colorado goaltender's 51 saves.


They sure seem to have a way of running into a hot goaltender, don't they? Maybe someone will start to ask: when will the Sharks get the hot goalie? Not until they make a change.

Moving Goalposts

Every year, games 1 and 2 completely change the goalposts. Before the playoffs started we expected to see total domination by the Sharks and Capitals. After game 1, and well into game 2 in each series, we wondered if the #8 seed was going to run away with it. Then, the #1 team wins game 2 and it seems to change everything.

Let's just remember that even a win in 6 was lower than our original expectations for both of these teams. The usual source of playoff underachievement in the face of such predictions is goaltending. It has been not good enough for both teams. Both could win their series in 5 games yet, though I doubt that will happen. If they do, they will have to contend with teams in the next round where this lack of goaltending, unless it gets better, could be a critical difference.

Let's just say I'm from Missouri City, Missouri and I need to be shown more than once. Winning "an upset" in game 2 is not going to convince me that either of these teams will make it into the finals.

Game 3

Time for depth to make its appearance in this series for the Devils. They will need to get at least two goals from either their PP, PK, Defenseman of third/fourth line players. Indeed, they need three goals from these sources to win Game Two. Assuming they are essentially third line players, I would like to see Rolston and/or Clarkson score a goal.

The other adjustment the Devils need to make is on the PK. White is the only player that they have who is big enough to contend with Pronger in the crease. White will have to keep an eye on Pronger and battle him in front of the net when he moves in from the point. Both front of the net goals that Pronger scored were against pusillanimous smaller defending players.

Really, the Flyers were lucky to win Game 1 and Game 2 would have probably been 4-2 absent the criminal 1997-style officiating. If Boucher were truly as good as he was in his rookie run he would have established himself somewhere in the past ten years. Enough quality chances against him and he will fold.

Let's Go Devils!

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Friday, April 16, 2010

Fins to the Limp, Fins to the Right

Win or lose tonight, it's clear that Nabokov is soft in the playoffs. Nobody could have predicted.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Shark Weak 2010

Oy.

It has to be a terrible, terrible day to be a Sharks fan. I can't imagine the anxiety. Arguably, they have been the best and most consistent team in California since Gretzky left. But that argument breaks down around this time of year. The 00s were the decade of the Ducks in California hockey. It began with a miraculous run to game 7 of the finals in 2003 which prefaced a conference finals run in 2006, California's first Stanley Cup in 2007, a playoff appearance in 2008, and bookended by a dramatic upset of the President's Trophy winners in the first round in 2009. That President's Trophy winner, was, of course, the Sharks.

Now they are on the verge of being eclipsed by their other southern neighbor, the Kings. If not this year, then next year it seems all but certain.

The hockey press/media, who is doing everything possible to ruin the sport, have embodied the two poles of ridiculousness on this issue. Hours before the puck dropped yesterday, San Jose columnist Ross McKeon declared that a decade of underachieving in the playoffs by the Sharks is totally irrelevant to this year. Maybe he was writing a propaganda piece. Maybe he was just really optimistic. But how could he not see what was coming?

The minute the Sharks gave up the first goal, everyone other hockey journamalist began writing their "choke" storyline. And once they lost game 1 at home, they submitted them for print. Indeed, what McKeon was really blind to wasn't the statistics, nor was it the Xs and Os of executing a hockey game. Rather, it was the self-fulfilling prophecy, the snowballing effect that a loss, any loss in any game in this series would have, and the psychological consequences of it.

The San Jose Mercury News spent roughly half of their article on the game relating it to past failures. Their other article? Speculating, once again, on whether Patrick Marleau will be the fall guy for the loss. I don't think you can argue with a straight face that none of this has any effect at all. It's certainly not the whole story. As I write this, I still believe San Jose will win this series. But it will have an effect.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

One more thing...

I'm having trouble finding anyone except the usual Colorado chauvinists who think the Sharks won't win this series. There were more than a few people that thought they were stepping into it last year with the Ducks. At the end of the day that means that a loss in this series will be an even bigger choke.

It could be very interesting if Colorado can pull off a game 1 win. Still, I don't think this is where the Sharks will have problems.

So, anyway, drop the puck.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Now me.

I'll take the Caps in 4, the Devils in 6, Sabers in 7, and Pens in 4.

Out west, I'll say San Jose in 5, Chicago in 6, Van in 5, and Detroit in 6.

---
UPDATE: Some of my thoughts...

I'll just add that the Sharks' history of choking is hardly limited to the first round. They have lost series where they were the heavy favorite in each round over the last 10 years, except the finals, where they have never been. In my opinion, they were the strongest in 2007 when they were minutes away from going up on the Red Wings 3-1 in the 2nd round. They also lost in the 2nd round in 2008, 2006, 2002, and 2000. They lost in the 3rd round in 2004 and did not make the playoffs in 2003. I don't believe they will lose to Colorado, but after that they could be toast at any time.

Vancouver also has no excuses for their playoff performances over the last decade. They have had good enough teams to at least make a finals appearance.

The common denominator in both of these cases is an insistance by the team management to blame everyone except the goaltender even though in both cases that is the only common denominator throughout their ongoing string of failures. Apparently, the Dallas Stars have realized that in their case and are sending playoff choker Marty Turco away. Anyway, there are many goaltenders who are excellent in the regular season. If there is a team that is in the business of collecting President's Trophies, I suggest they pay guys like Turco, Nabokov, and Luongo. But for the teams that want the Stanley Cup, you need guys who can win in April.

Team Canada was a hair's breadth away from an embarrassing spectacle at the Olympics because they chose to put the goalie who played on the Canadian team in ahead of two goalies who both have won something. That dumb luck will not help the Canucks in the Stanley Cup playoffs, but it might get them past the young Kings.

Bryzgalov and Halak are two goalies that are capable of winning in April, and Bryzgalov already has a fairly decent playoff resume, including one of the longest ever shutout streaks.

The one other factor that even enters into my deliberations about who will win playoff series, though, is experience. There is both good and bad experience. The difference between the two, combined with goaltending, is why the Ducks beat the Sharks last year, and, why I believe Detroit will beat the Yotes nothwithstanding Bryzgalov's excellence. As for Van versus LA, I am unsure about this pick, but my gut simply tells me that the carriage has to turn back into a pumpkin at some point and Van is due for a win. Just gut, I guess.

Speaking of all of this, it's tough to think that the east won't come down to the same two teams it did last year, though New Jersey should be in the mix. They haven't been living up to my expectations for them since the lockout. This is the best team they've had since then, and it's probably Marty's best shot to get one more.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

First Round Predictions -- East

Washington Capitals versus Montreal Canadiens (Washington in 5): The Habs simply do not have the goaltending or the defense to contain Washington. I expect a lot of goal scpring; Gomez and Gionta are cagey enough to get theirs, but this will ultimately be as lopsided as a Pacquio fight.

NJ Devils versus Philadelphia Flyers (Devils in 6): Bad matchup for the Devils on papers (Flyers dominated the season series 5-1), but the Devils quietly played their best hockey towards the end of the season, and one feels that they are capable of taking it up a notch more in the post-season as they have really just been playing for positioning for about a month. Peter Laviolette gave the Devils fits when he coached the Hurricans, and the Flyers play a similar style as the Stanley Cup Canes. I am willing to bet that Jacques Lemaire is smart enough to narrow the "style of play" differneces over the course of three days of study. Boucher will be strong enough in goal, but if the Devils are able to control the tempo versus the Flyers they do have better finishers and the better goaltender. Pronger is the X-Factor in the Series though. We'll see if he still has it.

Buffalo Sabres versus Boston Bruins (Sabres in 6): This one is almost a toss up as the Bruins dominated the season series even though the Sabres finished far higher in the standings. Both teams play a very similar limit the chances and try to win a low scoring game style. I expect all of the games to be close. Ultimately, Buffalo has the money goaltender and the Bruins have a better defense but an untested goalie. When it comes down to someone scoring one goal, I would be most willing to count on Vanek, but I honestly would not be shocked if Boston wins.

Pittsburgh Penguins versus Ottawa Senators (Pens in 5): The Pens really lucked out in this first round match up as they are a team that has first round upset written all over them. The Sens' whole season has really consisted of one outlier long winning streak. Otherwise they are a shell of the perrenial contenders from the late 90s and first several years of the 2000s. They took a severe blow when they lost Alexi Kovalev. As mercurial as he is, he has always been a playoff stalwart. If the Pens show up they should win the Series, although Ottawa will play hard. It is still a true possibility that the Pens will not show up.

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First Round Predictions -- West

San Jose versus Colorado: (San Jose in 5). The Sharks finally luck out in the first round. The Avs stalled over the last two weeks in the season and seem unlikely to carry their regular season brio into the post-season. They have already defied expectations, and Adam Foote isn't enough of a veteran presence to get them caring enough to make a real run for the Sharks' money.

Blackhawks versus Predators: (Chicago in 6): This will be a relatively easy 6 game series as the Hawks simply have too much firepower for the Predlies. I suspect that the Hawks will lose two games rather than the Preds winning two.

Canucks versus LA Kings (Kings in 7): Upset special. Roberto Luongo is probably the most over-rated player in hockey. He has never won anything and was nervous as a house cat in the Olympics (Canada won in spite of Luongo, his inability to catch a routine wrist shot lead to Parise's tying goal in regulation). Kings have exceptional players in goal and in key defensive areas and are deep up front with Ryan Smyth providing grit and leadership.

Coyotes versus Red Wings (Coyotes in 6): One of my sports memes is that the team that lost in the championship round the previous season almost never does as well the next season (Yes the Pens won after finishing second last year, but onyl after firing their coach and vastly changing their roster at the deadline. It's also nice to change horses in midstream and yet still keep Malkin and Crosby, too). Of course, even finishing second is a tall order and requires many things to go right. A lot of people like Bar Food in this series because they have so much experience and finished strong, but the Yotes have the goaltending and the leadership to win a frustrating unfair type series the way Edmonton did several years back. The Wings have gotten tons of breaks over the last several years and this team is not as good as recent vintages. Ilya Bryzgalov is as underrated as Luongo is overrated. Phoenix does not have any pressure, and never lulled this season. The higher seed will pull off the "upset".

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Thursday, October 1, 2009

Obligatory Pre-Season Shitty Predictions

Eastern Playoff Teams:

New Jersey, New York Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Carolina, Toronto

Western Playoff Teams:

Vancouver, Calgary, San Jose, Anaheim, Detroit, Chicago, Los Angeles, Dallas

Final Four: Vancouver, San Jose, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh

Cup: Vancouver

Three days in these final four picks are looking ridiculous. I don't think Philly has the goaltending, even though it's starting well. Vancouver is choking under pressure, but it's early.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Handshakes and Court rulings.

So Pens in 7. I'm glad I went with my heart instead of my mind on that. I really didn't want to see the Wings win again. Not that I looked forward to the apotheosis of Sidney Crosby, but oh well.

The Wings complaints about handshake snubs are as classless as what they are alleging. Shut up. You lost. I know you think that that should never happen, but it did.

Are we done pretending that Chris Osgood is an elite goalie? He built a resume on the back of his team. Credit to him for being good enough, but he's no Brodeur, Roy, Hasek. He's not even a Giguere.

I'm very interested in the Coyotes situation. It looks like the judge is at least considering allowing the move, but is basically telling Balsillie that he'll have to pay about half a billion total for it. I think he might be willing to do that...

Thursday, May 14, 2009

2009

There's no team I really care to follow left in the playoffs, so I won't have anything else to say. Detroit is going to assrape Chicago in the Conference finals, I'm very sad to say. I'd love to see the Hawks—anyone except the Entitled Red Wings. Detroit in 5. If had balls I'd say 4.

Yes, I said the Hawks had to prove something and then I would believe in them. They did prove it, but not that much. The Canucks softness lost out to the Hawks toughness and now there are questions about Luongo as a playoff goalie. No definitive judgment yet, but questions.

Out east...well, let's just say I think we've got a rematch of last year in the finals on our hands. Penguins in 6.

Blech.

Update: I'll end the year either 9-6 or 8-7. Not a very good year. I'm going with Fleury. He's been better than Osgood and I think the Pens want revenge. First finals rematch in a long time goes to the Pens in 6.


Thursday, May 7, 2009

Ontario Coyotes

Here's Damien Cox arguing to keep the Coyotes in Arizona. (If you've ever wondered exactly what you need to run a hockey team, look at the sale agreement in the side panel. They list every contract, every piece of equipment—everything they have. It's fascinating.)

All of his arguments are without merit.

Number one:
For starters, the NHL has the right to the pursue business strategies of its choice under the laws of Canada and the United States. There is no moral imperative here.
The NHL has that power, yes. But that doesn't make it right. Everything the NHL does should be to make hockey successful. But I can see a single rational business interest served by keeping a team in a market that has demonstrated failure.


Number two:
Second, a successful franchise in Phoenix – something that hasn't yet been achieved because of awful ownership and management – is potentially worth more to the NHL than a successful second franchise in southern Ontario.
Cox supplies no facts or arguments to back up that summary conclusion. I have no idea what he means. Maybe he's suggesting that hockey will become popular in Arizona and the next Wayne Gretzky will come from Mesa or Gila Bend. But if he means in terms of revenue, he's off base. The team will make more many in any number of Canadian cities.

And, the worst, number three:
Third, franchises can flourish in the U.S. southwest and the Sun Belt. Look at Dallas, Anaheim and San Jose.
Has Cox ever been to these places? There is no such place as the Sun Belt. It's just a term use to refer to areas of growth that have gained population from colder places. There is no culture, economy, or geography in common with these places. And notice that he omits some other failures: Nashville, Florida, and Atlanta.

The reason this argument is stupid is that none of these places is alike, and none of them is much like Phoenix. Anaheim is part of the Los Angeles media market, the second largest in the US. The Greater LA area is both geographically and demographically giant and diverse.

The LA area features over 130 high school hockey teams, which is one of the highest densities outside of Minnesota. There in no where near that amount of grassroots support in Phoenix, Dallas, Nashville, or any of the other "Sun Belt" areas. I bet you'd be surprised to hear than the San Francisco Bay Area is probably second in terms of amateur teams. I can't verify that, but there is a strong presence there.

Part of this is that the Bay Area had an NHL team 40 years ago, and LA has had a team for a long time. Even if the Kings are the red headed step-child of California hockey right now, there is obviously no problem fan wise with the Ducks or Kings.

Los Angeles can't be pigeon-holed because it is so huge. You can't just say "it's in the Southwest" or "in the Sun Belt." California has about the same population as Canada.

I can't really comment much on why Dallas has succeeded in terms of what's going on in Dallas. I know they have had good ownership. But I can tell you, as multifaceted as Great Los Angeles is, Dallas is a different animal. LA and San Jose probably have as much in common with Canada as it does Dallas.

Nashville and Atlanta are very different places too. They both share southern roots, but Atlanta, like Los Angeles, has so many people that you cannot simply say "Atlanta is..." without excluding huge segments, segments large enough to support things like sports franchises.

The Panthers and Lightning were placed on the idea that there were enough transplants there to support the game and the Ning won a Cup. Super. But the Panthers have been awful.

Cox's last argument is that the NHL has done OK pulling teams out of bankruptcy. With the exception of Washington, all three he lists are hockey hotbeds. Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo. None of those places ever face the same lingering doubts over fans. All have proved they exist already. Those were all problems that never would have occurred if the management was good.

At the end of the day, the NHL just doesn't want to admit that it's "Sun Belt" expansion is a success only if 50% is a passing grade, and it isn't in any school I've ever been to, and that's if you measure success only on the basis of Stanley Cups and failure on the basis of financial drama. Teams like the Sharks and Thrashers don't fit neatly into any category, but can't be failures. Are they successes?

All of this sturm and drang over moving a team was absent in the 90s, when Winnipeg and Quebec lost teams. The exchange rate was the prevailing argument, but now we're told to ignore temporary issues? Which is it?

Teams move. They always have. It shouldn't be done as a matter of course, but it should be done when it's clear that the other teams would be better off.

I believe that hockey needs to be firmly rooted in Canada, where it is the number 1 sport. I believe the Coyotes need to leave Phoenix. This means that it makes sense to move the Coyotes back up north, but I don't per se oppose them moving somewhere else. But it can't be another place that the NHL just wants to show it can do well in to prove a point. It should be a solid pick. That means please no Kansas City or Las Vegas. (Though any team in Las Vegas instantly gets Sean Avery just for being in Vegas.)

Hamilton is a sort of strange pick. I think a second Toronto team makes the most sense, followed by a return to Quebec. In the US, I imagine a second Minnesota team would do well, but so might a Portland or Seattle team.

None of this will happen since the NHL does everything it possibly can to suck.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Yeah, it was a bad call.

Among many last night.

But why is it that there's a call for dramatic reforms of the league every time the Red Wings lose a playoff game? Arturs Irbe was cheating with his pads in 1994, the Devils were cheating or ruining the sport by playing the trap in 1995. And Giguere's pads were too big (even though they measured them) in 2003. In other words, the first explanation is that someone's cheating, not that the Wings lost, or, better that the game needs to be changed so they can just win like they're entitled to.

What about the LaRose non-goal? That was a goal. No eruption over that. This wasn't an OT goal. There's no guarantee the Red Wings win in OT. And it might have just been the hockey gods giving karma to a bunch of bad calls against the Ducks and no call on Holmstrom's elbow to Wiesniewski's face, which just because it wasn't mentioned on Versus didn't meant it didn't happen. It was in the AP report. And it didn't have to be what put him in the hospital to be a penalty—a major even.

The ref should have been in position to see the puck was loose, but my god, all of the whining on this, you'd think it was Brett Hull in 1999.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Marchant

I called it!

OK, looks like a Drama Niedermayer tip but that was all Marchant.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Detroit

I think Game 1 is pretty much a microcosm of what's going to happen in the series. Anaheim is going to be in it for a lot longer than people think, but, in the end, they're not going to get all the bounces they need.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Round 2 East

Showing my ignorance of the East, I only got one series right thanks to the Devils and Rangers both blowing series leads and losing game 7s.

#1 Boston vs. #6 Carolina
Thomas still has to show me something because Montreal didn't present more than a minor bump in the road, and Ward has won it all. But absence of bad evidence is not evidence of absence. I'll go with the hype pick, Boston in 7.

#2 Washington vs. #4 Pittsburgh
When Lundquist was in a game, he showed that decent tending can slow down the Caps. A case can be made that Fleury is just as good as Lundquist, but guess what? Pittsburgh has more of everything else than the Rangers. Washington doesn't have the tending and Pittsburhg doesn't have the clown show. Pittsburgh in 6.

Don't Deserve It.

Maybe Marty Brodeur wasn't 100% healed from his season long injury. I don't know. The Devils defense wasn't as strong as it needed to be, but there's something more than all of that.

This team gave up a goal to lose with less than a second left earlier in the series and then loses the ENTIRE series in less than a minute and a half. That is simply not good enough. It's an epic fail, and a team that does that doesn't deserve to win.

The Devils played too much Sharks hockey to win a series.

I'm just disgusted.

Update. What an abortion of a game, a series and a season. This team showed streaks of brilliance during the regular season, and at its worst it showed signs of being outgunned and outtalented, but I never saw (and I admittedly did not watch all 89 games) the kind of pusillanimous shitty play that lost them this series. To lose like that is to act like you think you're so much better.

Ugh, what an abortion. Well, Lou, how many good seasons does Marty have left? Maybe he needs a long summer to fully recover. But you'd better get some fucking D-men who know how to win and get rid of some hangers on coasting on their reputations from the glory days who aren't doing shit. (I'm looking at you Patty Cakes, you fucking femme. You belong on the Sharks.)

Update 2: The Devils have approximately $40m committed next year to 13 players. Word is the salary cap will go down to $50m. That seems awfully low. But let's see what we can do in that scenario, and in a scenario where it just doesn't go up.

First, let all of the UFAs walk except Madden and Oduya. If Shanahan wants to come back for about the same, that would not be a bad thing. Trade Elias. That frees up $5.25m, which is most of what you will need to retain Zajac and Oduya. Allocate another $3.5m for the total jobbers, and we're in the neighborhood of $45m without having resigned Madden and without guessing what Elias's returns will cost. If Dainus Zubrus can be traded, trade him. Give him away. That's $3.4 of dead weight, and so we're back in the neighborhood of having $8m, or $13m, depending on the scenario, to play with.

Let's assume some of the guys in the minors that are included as "total jobbers" can fill in 2 or 3 positions. If the cap doesn't go down, we can sign Madden for the $4m per he'll probably demand, and we have most of a roster. We maybe need 4 or 5 players and employ Elias's return for $4m or $9m. If it's the former, then the team will be worse next year and will have to rely on the farm and maybe a somewhat ready prospect as a return for Elias.

If it's the latter, there's money there to go get the defenseman they need, and they'll have a chance. NHL numbers shows Salvador still on the roster. I missed that. Buy him out, trade him, whatever. Jobber.

Game 7

Pretty easy, the Parise-Zajac-Langenbruner line needs to be at least as good a the Staal line. The Canes have dominated that matchup since game 4, and that is why they have won two out of the last 3 and gotten a tremendous amount of SOGs. Oh and it would be nice if Elias, who is usually good in the playoffs even after a so-so regular season, would do something.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Round 2 West

#2 Detroit vs. #8 Anaheim
That was really fun, winning the Battle of California, and short of a dynasty, it's sort of icing on the cake of the ride the Ducks have taken us on over the last 6 years... And it was no surprise to me that they beat the Sharks. How badly—yeah, that was a bit of surprise. Especially games 4 and 6. But I'm pretty sure that's their story this year.
Detroit in 6.

#3 Vancouver vs. #4 Chicago
A team I've called out as soft against a team I've called out as green? For me, it's this simple, again: Luongo. Vancouver in 7.

P.S. Still waiting to see what happens out east. I'm not feeling stupid for picking the Flames. A few bounces and they might have had it. Losing Phaneuf was awful. But out east? Good god, that's what I get for picking those Femmes the Flyers... and the Rangers... have you ever seen the like of this implosion?

Thornton FAIL

So was that fight Joe's attempt to like "have heart?" Prepare to be traded to Florida. lol.

UPDATE: This is just fucked up (because I didn't think of it first):





UPDATE 2: Just to be clear, I'm not blaming this on Thornton. It's not his fault. It's Nabokov. He's the common denominator in the decade of Shark chokery. Why Joe should take the blame, I don't know. Joe is Joe. They expect him to be Eric Lindros or even Jerome Iginla. He's not that guy. But your goalie has to be able to steal games and Nabokov was good for stretches, but never dominated a whole game. Remember, the Ducks were always within a goal in game 3, and came back in a flash from down two in game 5. The goalie who wins the Stanley Cup doesn't do that, whoever he is. If I was the Sharks, I would look for some mercenary goaltending now that I have my mercenary d-men. Wouldn't it be interesting if they could swing a trade, three way or otherwise for Giguere? I can't think of any other Stanley Cup goalies that might be available out there. If they blame this on the coach, or on Thornton for not being a player he isn't, the results will likely be repeated. The Islanders are suckers for a bad trade. Marleau, a jobber, and yet another first rounder for DiPietro? haha. yeah, right. The Islanders think Tavares is going to win them a Cup.

On Calgary, I was just plain wrong about Kipprusoff he sucked. If he had been a little bit better, the Flames would've had it. Biron sucked, they lost. Lundqvist is sucking, they're losing. Goaltending. It's pretty much that simple.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Devils vs. Canes: Game 6

For all the worthy talk on goaltending in this series if I were the Devils I would want to use the extra day off between games to figure out how my team gave up 90 shots over two regulation games. The Canes are very good at defense to offense transitions and at gaining speed through the neutral zone. They also win a disproportionate amount of key faceoffs. So they have the puck often and they attack with it. Moreover, the Devils have often backed off in the third to play for OT, whereas the Canes have attacked.

Although Rolston did his best, he tried too much ole bullshit where Langenbrunner would have started a cycle. For the Devils then the best defense is a good offense. They should try a little less heroism off the rush a little more cycling. They also need to keep on punching in the third, even if they are up on the scoreboard.

The Canes' two wins came in games in which the Devils lost a crucial player in the middle of the contest, and it still took improbable breaks for the Canes to get the W. All things being equal the Devils are the better team, but the Canes have an incredible talent for pulling a rabbit out of a hat which I suspect comes from the leadership of Brind'amour (who deserved the Smythe more than Ward, but whatever).

Anyhow, should be entertaining.

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